The End Justifies the Means
A late but necessary recap of the 2024 US Grand Prix
Let me start by addressing the elephant in the room.
Yes, the most recent race took place in Mexico City, not Austin. The reason this recap is being published now instead of earlier is partly due to some exciting things that will be discussed on Omakase Formula down the line and partly due to my failed attempt to try and make up for not doing a recap in the week after the US Grand Prix with a massive double recap of the races in Austin and CDMX. A lot of the talking points from Mexico (which you can read about here on Omakase Formula within the next 48 hours after this post is published) stem from events that took place in Austin, so I figured it was still worth talking about Austin on its own.
It also makes sense to dedicate one post solely to the race in Austin, because Austin deserves it. Despite being the oldest of the three American grands prix on the current calendar, general coverage of the race in Austin has been somewhat dwarfed by coverage of its younger, flashier siblings in Miami and Las Vegas. I can understand why Vegas draws the interest it does given its location and status as a night race, but let’s be real: the Miami Grand Prix literally takes place in a parking lot. It’s a shame, then, that Austin doesn’t necessarily get the coverage it deserves. Especially since it’s the one out of the three that offers by far the best racing.
Logic dictates that the best racetracks in the world will have a bit of everything: a long straight, some fast, winding corners, and a few slow corners with heavy braking zones. Yet ask any seasoned Formula One fan to name their favorite tracks and chances are you’ll get a lot of older circuits in response, even though those circuits are often “lacking” in one area or another. That’s in part because modern tracks are (rightfully) focused on safety. Whereas tracks such as Spa punish mistakes in part because there’s very little room for them in the first place, newer circuits tend to have a lot of runoff. That’s great for driver safety, but not so great for punishing mistakes or bringing chaos. The other part deals with the FIA leaving newer circuit designs largely to one man: Hermann Tilke.
Unlike some Formula One fans, I disagree that Tilke is solely responsible for modern Formula One tracks being boring. You can only do so much as a designer when you’re operating under a mountain of necessary yet suffocating requirements. But the FIA’s over-reliance on him, whether it be to renovate older tracks or design new ones, means the calendar is now oversaturated with Tilke’s design DNA. And unfortunately, no one ever told Tilke that variety is the spice of life. This is where I agree with the critics: every Tilke track (nicknamed “Tilkedrom”) is simply a variation of another Tilke track, and the fact the modern calendar has so many of them makes racing predictable for both drivers and viewers.
Like any Tilkedrom, the influence of earlier Tilkedroms on the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) can be clearly seen. The Turn 16-19 complex at COTA is such a blatant carbon copy of Istanbul Park’s legendary Turn 8 that a schoolteacher wouldn’t need plagiarism-checking software to automatically give COTA a failing grade. Luckily, racetracks aren’t graded that way, which is all for the better because COTA defies all Tilkedrom logic by actually working. Part of this is down to the fact the track flows well, but a more subtle aspect of COTA’s design is that the corners deliberately widen. This encourages drivers to experiment with different racing lines, eliminating single-file racing and adding excitement. And since COTA offers a bit of everything in terms of track characteristics, it’s also a very representative circuit. Doing well here means you’re primed to do well the rest of the season—an important point in a year as competitive as this one.
The results speak for themselves: the largest winning margin at COTA since it entered the Formula One rotation is 10.730 seconds, and that was only because the original runner-up got disqualified post-race. At this year’s race, only one driver finished in the same position they started the race.
COTA’s well-earned reputation means it’s also a favorite of the FIA for hosting sprint races, and this year saw the format return to the circuit. This recap won’t be covering the sprint race because, as I’ve explained previously, sprint races tell us nothing. Plus, it’s not as if Sunday’s full grand prix was short on excitement anyway.
Ferrari officially go from spoiler to contender.
Charles Leclerc: 1st (Qualified 4th)
Carlos Sainz: 2nd (Qualified 3rd)
The start of the race weekend brought an eyebrow-raising moment when it was revealed that Ferrari didn’t bring any major upgrades to Austin. The end of the race weekend was proof they didn’t need to.
Ferrari have struggled at Austin in previous years largely because their car didn’t have pace outside straights and low-speed corners. The upgrades—chiefly a new floor and front wing—that they rolled out in Monza have been consistently tweaked with over the subsequent races. As a result, Ferrari showed the fastest speed through medium-speed corners, which ultimately pushed them to the front of the pack in Austin. They didn’t need to do much on-track on Sunday to prove that, though, as Leclerc took advantage of a great start and the space Max Verstappen left as he pushed Lando Norris out wide at Turn 1 to take the lead. Meanwhile, Sainz pitted on Lap 21 and used the undercut to pass Verstappen for second. That may have contributed to the dominance Ferrari showed over the weekend flying under the radar post-race, but make no mistake: they are now contenders for the Constructors’ Championship. They still sit 48 points behind McLaren in the team standings, but more importantly they find themselves just 8 points behind Red Bull in second. With a fast car and two drivers in Leclerc and Sainz who can consistently be competitive, they will be main challengers to McLaren in the final stretch of this season. And while 48 points over five races (and two sprint races, but your focus should really be on the five main races) might seem like a tall task, remember that both drivers score points for the team title. Add on a bit of luck, and Ferrari just might see themselves lift the Constructors’ Championship at the end of it all. Given their stellar result at a track as representative as COTA, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were feeling relatively bullish about their chances.
Speaking of bulls…
Red Bull leave Austin feeling both bullish and bearish.
Max Verstappen: 3rd (Qualified 2nd)
Sergio Perez: 7th (Qualified 9th)
Verstappen’s hopes of a fourth straight individual title rest on the simple (if you can call it that) goal of either finishing ahead of Lando Norris or finishing just behind him. In Austin, he accomplished the former, winning the sprint race on Saturday while Norris finished third and finishing on the podium on Sunday while Norris finished one place behind. It might not be the most glamorous way to win a title, but at the end of the day the only thing that matters if you’re in Verstappen’s shoes is whether you’re still on the top step at the end of the season. The end justifies the means.
Or does it?
That is the question everyone is asking after Verstappen’s latest battle with Norris saw him toe the line regarding racing guidelines. On Lap 52, Verstappen covered the inside on the straight, forcing Norris to try and pass him on the outside at Turn 12. He then proceeded to brake late and lunge on the inside, forcing both himself and Norris off-track. Norris ended up overtaking him from that position and received a penalty for doing so (more on that in the McLaren section below). But while the decision by the stewards to rule in Verstappen’s favor was consistent with racing guidelines, Verstappen’s tactic here exposed a loophole that puts any car in Norris’s position at a disadvantage.
Since Verstappen was ahead of Norris at the apex of Turn 12, he was judged to be the defending driver. Therefore, Norris overtaking him off-track would be a penalty for Norris because you can’t overtake someone from an off-track position. However, Verstappen was ahead at the apex only because he purposefully braked late to gain that advantage, something proven by the fact he himself also left the track in that moment. His action simultaneously forced Norris to have no choice but to also leave the track. This interpretation of the incident would mean Verstappen would be the one forcing Norris off-track, which would result in a penalty for Verstappen. However, because Verstappen was the defending driver and had the “right of way” in this scenario, it meant that he would receive no punishment and at worst would only be given a warning for exceeding track limits by going off-track himself. Since you can receive three warnings before incurring a penalty for exceeding track limits and there’s no rule in place saying that a penalty for an off-track overtake is cancelled out by the fact the overtaking driver was forced off by the defending driver, it becomes clear that the defending driver in such a scenario has an inherent advantage and—unlike the attacking driver—no reason to keep things tidy in such battles.
Let me clear: I’m not saying this to suggest that Verstappen raced dirty in this battle with Norris. He didn’t break any rules in doing what he did, and any suggestion that he either did or that such a tactic is “dirty” would unfairly take away from the fact he had shown a masterclass in defensive driving in the lead up to the incident on Lap 52. What needs to change here are the guidelines, and the FIA have agreed to present revisions in the near future.
In the mean time, Verstappen won’t care. He won both the short-term and long-term battles on-track against his nearest championship rival by staying ahead and doing so within the framework of what the current rules say. If he wasn’t feeling terribly bullish about becoming a four-time champion before Austin, Red Bull’s ability to unlock some of the pace in their car that had eluded them in the previous races and this race result will have him feeling a bit better about where his season stands.
As for Red Bull’s team championship hopes, the team should have left Austin feeling more bullish as well. Instead, yet another underperformance by Perez and a 1-2 finish by Ferrari see the team in real danger of dropping to third in the Constructors’ Championship. There’s no wonder that the talk surrounding Perez’s future on the team has kept going, with recent rumors suggesting that the remaining grands prix are an audition for one of Liam Lawson or Yuki Tsunoda to replace Perez at Red Bull in 2025. That these rumors are not only circulating but perfectly within reason isn’t surprising. As evidenced by the car’s performance at the hands of Verstappen, Austin showed Red Bull have taken a step towards solving the issues with their car. It would be unfair to think Perez could exactly replicate whatever Verstappen does (and you could argue Red Bull got themselves in this mess in the first place because they somehow believed he could). But getting out-qualified by a Haas(!) and finishing the race behind a driver who started from the pit lane(!!) is too much to ignore, even without the added pressure of their precarious position in the team championship battle.
Another race, another questionable call at McLaren.
Lando Norris: 4th (Qualified 1st)
Oscar Piastri: 5th (Qualified 5th)
McLaren secured a result most teams would be proud of. However, given their status as Constructors’ Championship leaders and with Norris being the main challenger to Verstappen, this weekend was a disappointment. The team brought upgrades, but all the upgrades seemed to bring were reports of balance issues in the car and admissions from the team they had come into the weekend expecting a rougher outing.
It seemed almost a miracle, then, that Norris put the car on pole position. But defending his position at the front after what he called the best single lap of his career was going to be an uphill task, and McLaren were unlucky that Verstappen pushing Norris off-track with a late lunge at Turn 1 on the opening lap (a preview of what was to come 51 laps later) not only went unpunished but also allowed both Ferraris past.
That being said, McLaren should have been able to salvage a a place on the podium for Norris. The initial decision to keep him out until Lap 31 and have a six-lap tire delta versus Verstappen looked on track to pay dividends. That was, until everything that happened on Lap 52.
The team had the option to cede the position Norris gained at Turn 12 back to Verstappen and avoid the risk of taking a 5-second penalty altogether. That they had him keep the position rather than give it up was a gamble they had no business making. They told Norris over the team radio not to give the position back because they believed he was ahead at the apex, which was blatantly false. But let’s say that McLaren were aware they would be facing a penalty and only told Norris that so he could concentrate on racing. The argument for keeping the position would be that in clean air Norris could let the car fly and open up a lead greater than 5 seconds. This strategy wouldn’t be unreasonable if there had been 10 laps left in the race. It would be a toss-up in a situation where there were 5 laps left. But there were only 4 laps remaining, meaning Norris had to gain an average of 1.25 seconds a lap. Such a gap might have been possible if COTA was a track that suited McLaren’s car. Except remember, McLaren themselves admitted COTA wasn’t a track that suited their car. So given they knew they didn’t have a very significant pace advantage, why on Earth would they ever roll the dice on a strategy that necessitates one?
The bigger question for McLaren—because let’s face it, their race strategy has been so suspect over the course of the season that it’s frankly unquestionably questionable at this point—is this: since the team’s prediction Austin wouldn’t suit their car was proven correct (at least in relation to their closest rivals), which of the remaining tracks do they anticipate being a strong track for their car? You could make the argument Mexico City might suit McLaren more, since the high altitude places more importance on downforce. But in terms of pure track characteristics, Mexico and the remaining circuits still share a lot of similarities with Austin. So if McLaren view themselves (as Norris stated post-race) as having the third best overall pace in Austin, it’s hard to see where that won’t be the case barring any new upgrades or revisions to existing upgrades. This should worry the team: playing catch-up at this stage of the season isn’t ideal. Norris’s window for the Drivers’ Championship is already shrinking (he now needs to outscore Verstappen by over 11 points over the remaining races), and McLaren won’t be too thrilled with having to defend a 40-point lead in the Constructors’ Championship over Red Bull and a 48-point lead over Ferrari with a car that might not have an edge over those rivals anymore.
Mercedes rue what might have been.
George Russell: 6th (Pit lane start)
Lewis Hamilton: DNF (Qualified 17th)
Mercedes showed bursts of promising pace throughout the race weekend, but they couldn’t seal the deal when it mattered. A disappointing Saturday saw Hamilton knocked out early in qualifying and Russell end up in the wall. While Russell produced a great fightback on Sunday to go from the pit lane to finish sixth, Hamilton’s race was over almost as soon as it began when he spun off the track on Lap 2.
The only “solace” Mercedes can take from a mixed week like this is that they’re pretty locked in with regards to where they’re going to finish this season. They’re 152 points behind Ferrari in the Constructors’ Championship post-Austin, so it would take something beyond a miracle if they were to snag the title from here. And unlike Red Bull, they’re also not in danger of losing a place here: they’re 258 points ahead of 5th place Aston Martin. So while a week like this is disappointing for any team, Mercedes are at least secure in the knowledge they won’t need to carry the baggage of the consequences of a bad week.
On the flip side, you could also say the only reason they can do that is because they’re in the unenviable position of not being championship contenders. But glass half full, yeah?
Haas rise yet another step.
Nico Hulkenberg: 8th (Qualified 11th)
Kevin Magnussen: 11th (Qualified 8th)
Hulkenberg’s 8th place finish gave Haas their highest-ever finish in America. More importantly, it means they’ve now scored in four consecutive races—the first time the team has accomplished this since 2018. It could have been an even better week for the team, as Magnussen looked on pace to finish in the points. But a confusing second trip into the pits, which Team Principal Ayao Komatsu attributed to “messy communication,” meant Haas had a car finish 11th place for an eighth time this season.
The being said, Haas should focus on the positives here: their upgrades worked well in Austin, and you could argue they should have had better results in both qualifying and the race if not for freak events (Magnussen’s final lap in qualifying was aborted when Russell crashed out). The most important positive, however, is this: they’ve now overtaken RB for 6th place in the Constructors’ Championship.
There’s more news off-track for Haas as well: the team announced over the course of the break it was entering into a technical partnership with Toyota. It marks the return of the Japanese marque to the sport after an unsuccessful stint from 2002-2009 (they won zero races, something Haas is all too familiar with). Both sides were quick to stress that this partnership should only be taken at face value—Haas are not looking to sell, and Toyota are not looking for a full return to Formula One.
But even with Haas recommitting to using Ferrari engines earlier this year it’s difficult not to see a future down the line where the Haas-Toyota partnership develops into something more. The benefits for Haas are clear: Toyota’s vast resources across the technical and manufacturing sectors will allow Haas to hopefully increase their car’s competitiveness. But what’s the benefit for Toyota here? Komatsu commented that Haas offers Toyota’s Gazoo Racing division a platform to “advance their in-house engineering capabilities.” That might make sense on a surface level, but it overlooks the fact that Toyota wouldn’t need this partnership if that were the endgame. They already have successful programs in endurance racing and NASCAR, so it’s difficult to see how much more their in-house engineering capabilities will be enhanced simply by being involved in Formula One in this way with Haas. And while other marques such as Mercedes and Ferrari actively manufacture high-performance sports cars for the general public (and therefore constantly repackage things they’ve gleaned from motorsports into street-legal form), it’s highly unlikely your next Toyota Camry will share any DNA with a Formula One car. And even if Toyota do decide to make a supercar again in the future (which wouldn’t be unwelcome given how brilliant the LFA was), their other racing programs would offer more them more than enough intel anyway.
The fact is, the world in which Toyota could best use anything it’ll learn from this Formula One partnership with Haas is—*drumroll, please*—the Formula One world. They might not be looking to commit to a full return right now, but working with Haas now not only gives them an easy way back in if/when they do, but an opportunity to be competitive from the start rather than spending years playing catch-up.
RB close one carousel and immediately open another one.
Liam Lawson: 9th (Qualified 19th)
Yuki Tsunoda: 14th (Qualified 10th)
Liam Lawson’s Formula One re-debut saw him put together a stunning drive to finish in the points. The result was crucial not only for RB, who desperately needed points to prevent Haas from running away with 6th place in the team championship, but for Lawson’s future as well. His current contract runs through the end of the 2024, and while it’s clear he will have a spot on the grid next year, the question is where he will be.
It’s perhaps unfair to water down RB’s season to a story of driver carousels, but that’s what being Red Bull’s sister team will do. Perez’s continued struggles mean there’s a nonzero chance of either Lawson or Tsunoda being in the second Red Bull seat next year. A late spin for Tsunoda that saw him drop further down from P12 to P14 continues his run of disappointing form the second half of the season, with Austin being a sixth consecutive race where he finished outside the points. It would be harsh assessing Tsunoda’s season on his recent form, especially considering he’s still responsible for scoring over 60% of RB’s points in 2024. But the season’s entering its crucial juncture now, and how both drivers perform when the pressure is on will be what the top brass at RB remember. More importantly, it will be what top brass at Red Bull remember. Austin may only be one race, but going from 19th to 9th means it’s definitely advantage Lawson.
Colapinto rescues another point for Williams.
Franco Colapinto: 10th (Qualified 15th)
Alex Albon: 16th (Qualified 14th)
Another brilliant drive by Colapinto, which saw him go 39 laps on the hard tires and hold off Magnussen’s Haas in the closing stages of the race, meant Williams snuck into the last points position after a disappointing qualifying Saturday. Colapinto also looked set to receive a bonus point for having the fastest lap (something you only get if you finish in the top 10) up until Alpine pitted Esteban Ocon for soft tires on Lap 51 and proved exactly why the fastest lap bonus point is going to be abolished starting next year. Nonetheless, another performance like this only strengthens the argument Colapinto should be on the grid in 2025. The unfortunate part for him is that the only team with an open seat he could possibly fill is…Sauber (scroll to the end to see how they’re doing). But being a driver on the grid beats being a reserve driver, and Williams have repeatedly said they’d be willing to let Colapinto drive for a rival if it meant he’d be on the grid next year. With how much he’s impressed, I’d be surprised if Sauber could pull a better rabbit out of the hat. And even if Colapinto doesn’t get a Formula One seat for next year, I can imagine there are teams in other series that will be eyeing his performances with interest. It could very well be that he ends up driving in a series like WEC (World Endurance Racing) and returns to Formula One in 2026 or 2027. Regardless of which path ultimately pans out, more solid performances like this one will do well to continue forcing the issue.
Alpine start well and end…not so well.
Pierre Gasly: 12th (Qualified 6th)
Esteban Ocon: 18th (Qualified 12th)
Alpine brought a full upgrade package to Gasly’s car for Austin, and qualifying suggested the changes were working well. Even the first stint Gasly did on medium tires went well, as he had a great start to hold on to 6th place. However, Alpine’s decision to pit him on Lap 18 in response to Haas bringing in Magnussen the previous lap meant everything quickly went down the drain. The car was significantly slower on the hard tires, an issue that was further compounded by the fact a slow stop and the decision to pit early in the race meant Gasly ended up being stuck in traffic when he left the pits. That Magnussen ended up still finishing ahead of Gasly even with an extra pit stop will only rub further salt into Alpine’s wound.
At least Gasly had somewhere positive to start. Ocon, who did not have the full upgrade package, saw any low expectations for the race shattered on Lap 1 when he spun out on the first corner after Albon’s Williams made contact. But while Gasly’s race went from good to bad, Ocon managed to at least end the race on a more positive note. The team’s decision to pit him late for an attempt to steal the fastest point off Colapinto was a strategic one, as Alpine are locked in a battle with Williams for 8th place in the Constructors’ Championship. So while Ocon didn’t score a point for setting the fastest lap, he did prevent Williams from extending their lead in the team race over Alpine by more than the one point Colapinto scored for finishing in the top 10.
Aston Martin’s embarrassing slog through no-man’s land continues.
Fernando Alonso: 13th (Qualified 7th)
Lance Stroll: 15th (Qualified 13th)
Aston Martin find themselves in a no-man’s land similar to Mercedes. They’re too far behind the team in front of them (Aston are 258 points behind Mercedes after Austin) to make a charge up the team championship. But while Mercedes have shown at various points throughout the season they can be competitive with the teams in front of them, Aston Martin have shown at various points throughout the season that they can be competitive with the teams…behind them. Austin was further evidence of this, as Alonso dropped out of the top 10 before Lap 10 even arrived.
Spending the race entangled with (not to mention behind) cars they should easily clear on paper is embarrassing for Aston Martin. They might take solace in that fact they’re ahead of the team behind them (Haas) by just about enough (48 points) where they should still finish the season in 5th place. But with Haas clearly on the rise, it’d be better if the team put together a few positive results over the remainder of the season to close out 5th place rather than slog their way to the finish line via a combination of circumstance and luck.
That being said, if Aston Martin do choose to take the slow and painful route to the end of the year, at least they know they can possibly finish in the top five while doing so. Meanwhile…
Yes, Sauber still exist.
Valterri Bottas: 17th (Qualified 16th)
Zhou Guanyu: 19th (Qualified 18th)
No, they still haven’t scored any points this season.
Miscellaneous Musings:
Be sure to check back in the next 48 hours for a recap of the Mexican Grand Prix! Like I said at the start of this recap, a lot of what happened in Austin will help explain a lot of the storylines coming out of Mexico, so hopefully this recap will help you understand the talking points I’ll be discussing in that post. And hopefully you also found this (and every other Omakase Formula post) to be a good read too!