Harbinger of Chaos
A recap of the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix
It’s inherently odd that Formula One races in Azerbaijan. Not because the sport is a stranger to getting in bed with authoritarian regimes—races in Bahrain and China have been on the calendar since 2004. It’s certainly not because it’s completely unexplainable—the sport has been targeting new “destinations” in order to expand its reach, and Azerbaijan pays $55 million a year to host a race.
It’s just weird when put into context. There’s no race in Germany, despite the country having hosted grands prix across 64 seasons and having iconic circuits in the Hockenheimring and Nürburgring. There’s no race in France, despite the country having hosted grands prix across 62 seasons, though I will admit this one makes more sense. A French Grand Prix would likely take place at the Circuit Paul Ricard, known for being an absolute eyesore that’s produced more migraines than memorable races.
The oddities of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix even extend to the track itself. The Baku City Circuit is what you would get if two very different circuits accidentally crashed into each other. On one hand, there is a 2.22 km (1.38 mi) start-finish straight that runs on a road 13 m (42.65 ft) wide, allowing three cars to go side-by-side at breakneck speed. This leads into a series of 90-degree turns, which along with the main straight offer the track’s only overtaking opportunities. Meanwhile, the middle sector of the circuit is a tight, twisty section in Baku’s historic city center where it is impossible to overtake. And I mean that literally—Turn 8 is only 7.6 m (24.93 ft) wide, making it impossible for cars to go side-by-side. The contrast between the two distinct halves of the track makes any initial viewing of the race jarring. It’s like watching Emily in Paris, only to find out halfway through the season that Emily’s actually in Rome…
And yet, it all somehow works. The Azerbaijan Grand Prix, not Emily in Paris [insert European city, perhaps Baku if the show lasts long enough].
This grand prix has been a harbinger of chaos ever since it entered the calendar in 2016, something exemplified by the fact only one driver has won the race twice. And that driver is none other than…Sergio Perez (bet you didn’t see that one coming). The 2024 edition delivered once more on the race’s reputation for wreaking havoc. By Lap 50/51, there had been no safety car, despite the pre-race probability of one being at an eyebrow raising 74%. And then, just as the two-way battle for first seemed like it was heating up into a four-way fight to the finish, Baku delivered its annual plot twist: a crash, a Virtual Safety Car deployment, and the race ending in anti-climactic fashion.
Welcome to the weirdest race of the Formula One season.
McLaren officialize their ascendancy.
Oscar Piastri: 1st (Qualified 2nd)
Lando Norris: 4th (Qualified 15th)
It’s finally official: McLaren lead the Constructors’ Championship.
On one hand, typing that phrase seemed like an inevitability. McLaren have been the best team on paper for months now. Not only that, they’ve also been the only ones the last few months who were competitive week in, week out when it came to on-track performance.
On the other hand, typing that phrase seemed like a fantasy. Not because this is the first time McLaren have led the Constructors’ Championship since March 2014, and not because McLaren found themselves dead last in the championship standings back in March 2023. Rather, it’s because they fumbled so many opportunities to cut into Red Bull’s lead or take it from them outright that you’d be forgiven for thinking they were determined not to lead the championship at all.
On Saturday, it looked like it was going to be yet another missed opportunity for McLaren. They had affirmed their commitment to helping Norris in his quest to unseat Max Verstappen at the top of the Drivers’ Championship at the start of the week, only to see a freak yellow flag ruin Norris’s qualifying and knock him out in the first round of qualifying. It may have been purely bad luck, but that didn’t stop the ghost of Monza’s circus act from looming large over the team.
On Sunday, McLaren put together their best race yet this season to assert control over their own destiny. A brilliant 37-lap stint on hard tires (the correct choice of tire, more on that later) saw Norris charge up the field from 15th. When he switched onto medium tires, he was rewarded with clear air between him and Verstappen as he aimed to close a 15-second gap over the last 13 laps. He only needed 11.
Norris even found time during his mega drive to assist Piastri, as he successfully held off a charging Sergio Perez while Piastri pitted to prevent the former undercutting his teammate. This successful maneuver proved crucial for Piastri’s race, as it left him only needing to worry about overtaking Charles Leclerc for the team lead. He did so on Lap 20 with a brilliant lunge into Turn 1, catching Leclerc off guard. After that display of offensive brilliance, Piastri followed it up with 31 laps of magnificent defense as he held off Leclerc for the win. The cat-and-mouse game between the two as they pushed their cars to the edge was exemplified by what is surely the frontrunner for this season’s most iconic on-track moment, as both cars were filmed on Lap 41 drifting their way out of Turn 16. Tokyo Drift who?
The end result of a superb performance by the entire McLaren team? They now lead Red Bull by 20 points in the Constructors’ Championship (albeit with a little help from both Ferrari and Red Bull). Simultaneously, Norris continues to chip away at Verstappen’s lead, with the gap now down to 59 points despite many proclaiming his early exit in qualifying was a death sentence for his championship hopes.
McLaren finally showed in Azerbaijan they are serious about winning both championships. The end result shows just why they’re still capable of accomplishing that.
Leclerc and Ferrari once again settle for being the best man in Baku.
Charles Leclerc: 2nd (Qualified 1st)
Carlos Sainz: 18th (Qualified 3rd)
Leclerc has started from pole position in Baku four times. Every time he’s come away without the victory. Always the best man, never the groom.
In some ways, Leclerc can consider himself lucky. Trying to chase down Piastri had caused him to completely wear out his rear tires, and it was incredibly likely Sainz and Perez would have overtaken him and cost him a spot on the podium altogether before they helpfully decided to tango tangle with each other instead on Lap 50. A quick word on that crash: the stewards ultimately deemed it a racing incident, and I’m inclined to agree after watching it from multiple angles. The initial race broadcast made it look like Sainz went all kamikaze on Perez, but the view from Sainz’s cockpit clearly shows he didn’t turn the wheel. Perhaps Perez could have yielded the line, but Sainz would’ve also been aware Perez was right behind him and angling for an overtake. At the end of the day, it was just an unfortunate collision at precisely the wrong time.
Like I said after Monza, Baku was always going to suit Ferrari. The entire weekend showed exactly that. But much like how the team that wanted it more and took more risks won in Monza, the team that wanted it more and took more risks won in Baku. Unfortunately for Ferrari and Leclerc, in Azerbaijan they found themselves up against a McLaren team that were determined to prove themselves serious title contenders in the same way Ferrari did in Monza. Add on the winds of luck blowing against them on Sunday, and you get the result they walked away with. Sometimes, it’s just as simple as that.
Mercedes are minions of circumstance rather than masters of their own fate.
George Russell: 3rd (Qualified 5th)
Lewis Hamilton: 9th (Pit lane start)
Mercedes were the biggest beneficiaries of the Sainz-Perez crash, as it allowed Russell to sneak onto the podium and Hamilton to sneak into the points. This illustrates the big problem facing them: they’re now a minion of circumstance rather than a master of their own fate. Despite being the most in-form team right before the summer break, their pace since the Dutch Grand Prix has seen them consistently a step behind the duo of McLaren and Ferrari. If that weren’t bad enough, you could even argue Perez’s pace in Azerbaijan confirmed Mercedes are even a half-step behind Red Bull now, which is honestly rather embarrassing given Red Bull’s extremely publicized issues with their car (keep reading for the latest chapter in that saga).
Russell attributed the problems in Baku to the car’s lack of pace on medium tires, but the car’s pace on hard tires was frankly equally underwhelming. Hamilton spent much of the race locked in a battle with both Haas cars and the Williams of Franco Colapinto. The fact he could only pass Bearman’s Haas without any help whatsoever (the overtake on Hulkenberg occurred amidst the chaos of the Lap 50 crash) despite being in a car that is superior on paper and having a near-identical tire strategy (all four started on medium tires and pitted between Laps 10-15 for hard tires) isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of the Mercedes car. Yes, Hamilton did have to work his way up the grid. Yes, Baku doesn’t exactly offer a lot of overtaking spots. But that’s no excuse for the GOAT. Nor should it be an excuse for Mercedes, given McLaren managed perfectly fine with Norris in a similar situation.
Any talk about tire compounds or race pace also shouldn’t conceal the fact Mercedes got Hamilton’s tire strategy blatantly wrong this race. Remember when I said McLaren made the correct choice starting Norris on hard tires rather than mediums like most of the grid? The reason for such a tire offset is simple: when you’re starting from the back and have a superior car and driver, staying out longer guarantees you’ll pass the inferior cars in the midpack while they pit. It also allows you pit into a natural window that opens later in the race as the cars spread out, meaning you also won’t be passed by all those you’ve worked so hard to overtake. Case in point: Norris was 6th when he pitted on Lap 37 and left the pits in 7th. Given Hamilton was starting from an even worse position than Norris and the limited on-track overtaking opportunities at Baku, starting on hard tires was obviously the way to go even without the benefit of hindsight or any additional knowledge of the car’s pace on different tire compounds. Instead, Hamilton began the race on mediums. This meant while he was 14th when he pitted on Lap 12, he left the pits back down in 18th and needing to re-overtake all the cars he had just passed. All in all, a masterclass in futility.
Red Bull need to forget this race and focus on the potential light at the end of the tunnel.
Max Verstappen: 5th (Qualified 6th)
Sergio Perez: 17th (Qualified 4th)
This race will be an unfortunate one Red Bull will want to forget. Finishing 17th after spending most of the race fighting for both the win (not to mention his career) is another demoralizing result for Perez (note: he and Sainz are both classified with finishing positions rather than DNFs because they crashed out after more than 90% of the race distance was completed). As for Verstappen, Baku was the biggest sign the struggles of the last few months are taking a mental toll on him. On a day in which his slower teammate was fighting for victory the entire way, Verstappen’s own race—which culminated in him being passed by his title rival who had started nine places below him—read as uninspired. Furthermore, his complaints about the car this race rang hollow given Perez’s own pre-crash success. If not insincere, it at least came off as exaggerated, especially considering the reports coming out of Red Bull earlier this week revealed all of their car troubles the last few months are low-key a result of Verstappen’s own doing.
Let me explain: Verstappen isn’t sabotaging Red Bull. At least, not intentionally. Team Principal Christian Horner revealed at the start of the week the team had finally traced their car’s problems back to an underbody upgrade that was installed in Spain…of 2023. You think they’d have figured out the issue sooner. And in a way, they did—at least Perez did.
A look back reveals Perez started complaining about the car once the change was implemented, something which also coincided with the start of his inconsistent performances that season. The issue was the team looked at him like he was the boy who cried wolf because Verstappen was winning every race. That’s the problem when you have a driver whose car control is as extraordinary as Verstappen’s: he simply drives around the problem instead of pointing it out. Only once Verstappen complained about the car and his performance dropped too (which coincided with Perez’s performance cratering to new lows) did the team finally scramble to identify the issue. In light of all that, Verstappen’s complaints about the car on a day where it was working fine for Perez suggests he’s (understandably) tired of carrying the team week after week and is ready for them to provide some answers.
What those answers are (if they are indeed answers at all) will be revealed at next month’s race in Austin. Red Bull can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. But for now, tomorrow’s race in Singapore (Red Bull’s Achilles heel—the only one they failed to win last season) is all about damage control. Keeping things clean will go a long way in their fight to regain the Constructors’ Championship lead and keep Verstappen in a strong position to win the Drivers’ Championship.
Two premonitions and a shock at Aston Martin.
Fernando Alonso: 6th (Qualified 7th)
Lance Stroll: 19th (Qualified 13th)
The shock at Aston Martin was Alonso finishing 6th—the team’s highest finish since Canada eight races ago. Unsurprisingly, such a result was paired with premonition #1: Lance Stroll having yet another tragicomedy of a race. A crash with Yuki Tsunoda on Lap 1 forced Stroll back to the pits, and from there his race didn’t even begin to recover. He can consider himself fortunate a brake issue forced him to retire on Lap 45, because at least then he could blame the car without anyone pointing out his teammate was managing just fine. It’s cheeky when Verstappen complains endlessly about his car because he’s doing it from the front of the grid and is almost always ahead of his teammate. It’s decidedly less amusing when the complaints are coming from someone who never made it above 17th after the race’s opening lap and whose teammate is running ten places above him.
Ask for premonition #2? The news I mentioned after Monza that everyone has been whispering about is official: Adrian Newey is headed to Aston Martin as the team’s Managing Technical Partner. I can’t emphasize enough what a massive coup this is. If the statistic I mentioned last time about Newey-designed cars winning 25 Constructors’ and Drivers’ Championships didn’t impress you enough, let me add another that will hopefully put things in perspective: a Newey-designed car has won 19.7% of all Formula One races in history. And before you think this sport is some recent phenomenon, I would like to inform you the first Formula One season was in 1950. It’s no surprise, then, that the team paid up for his services: reports indicate Newey will earn £30 million (just shy of $40 million) per year, meaning he’ll earn more than every driver on the grid except Verstappen and Hamilton.
Baku justifies the driver switch at Williams.
Alex Albon: 7th (Qualified 9th)
Franco Colapinto: 8th (Qualified 8th)
When Williams first announced they were swapping Colapinto in for Logan Sargeant, my concerns were twofold. First, the car was barely competitive on the best of days, making the change seem pointless. Second, the change seemed even more pointless given Williams already had a permanent lineup for 2025. This meant Colapinto would be out anyway regardless of how well he performed. The race result in Baku and the aftermath finally alleviates both concerns.
The upgrades Williams brought to their car after Belgium have resulted in their car being competitive across all three races so far post-summer break (remember that Albon would’ve started top 10 at the Dutch Grand Prix if not for the mishap with the floor). And while Sargeant set the bar incredibly low (as in literally at ground level, considering he scored one point over a season and a half in Formula One), Colapinto deserves all the praise in the world for learning so quickly and scoring four points in just his second race. He even out-qualified Albon, something Sargeant never managed to do for a non-sprint race. Sure, Albon’s final qualifying session had a massive neon-colored asterisk in the form of an airbox cooling fan the team had incredibly left in the car (you’ll also wonder how no one noticed after you watch this video). But given how things were when Sargeant was behind the wheel, you get the feeling he still wouldn’t have out-qualified Albon under the same circumstance.
It’s true that Williams won’t score this many points every week. On paper, they’re realistically fighting for two points-scoring spots every race with two Haas cars, two RBs, and one Aston Martin. But the argument behind the driver swap was that the team wanted to take advantage of races where the cards fall in their favor. The fact they were able to take full advantage of such a scenario in Baku already justifies their decision, even if Colapinto doesn’t score any more points the rest of the season.
As for the second concern about what would happen to Colapinto in 2025, Team Principal James Vowles announced earlier this week the team would help Colapinto look for a drive in Formula One in 2025. Right now, that means pushing him for the only truly open seat left: the one alongside Nico Hulkenberg at Sauber. It’s a positive development that the team recognize Colapinto’s performances so far have warranted him consideration for a long-term drive, even if that drive is with a rival. As for his chances, I’d be shocked if Sauber aren’t putting Colapinto in pole position for their second seat. Not only has he already produced results in Formula One, but this is Sauber we’re talking about. They have no right to be picky (see the Sauber section of this post).
Baku reveals a bright future for Haas.
Ollie Bearman: 10th (Qualified 10th)
Nico Hulkenberg: 11th (Qualified 12th)
Things continue to look up for Haas. Ollie Bearman, who was a one-time substitute for the suspended Kevin Magnussen but will drive for the team starting 2025, finished P10. This makes him the first driver in Formula One history to score points in his debut race for two different teams (he had a P7 finish in Saudi Arabia earlier this year when he stood in for Sainz). Moreover, another points finish for Haas means the gap between them and RB in the Constructors’ Championship is now down to just five points.
That being said, spare a quick thought for Hulkenberg. He was running in the points for a good portion of the race and looked on track for a top 10 finish when the crash occurred on Lap 50. However, Hulkenberg slowed down, as he believed the incident would immediately bring either a yellow or red flag. But the slight delay under which the yellow flag and the Virtual Safety Car were deployed meant Hamilton and Bearman both passed him while the flags were still green. As a result, Baku ended up being Hulkenberg’s seventh(!) 11th place finish this season. So close to the points, yet so agonizingly far.
A weekend of contradictions for Alpine.
Pierre Gasly: 12th (Qualified 18th)
Esteban Ocon: 15th (Pit lane start)
Alpine had a horrible Saturday that left them in a disadvantageous position for Sunday’s race. A power unit replacement for Ocon saw him start from the pit lane. Gasly initially qualified 13th, but was disqualified after and forced to start from the back of the pack when his car was found to have exceeded the instantaneous fuel mass flow limit. Although Sunday’s race went much better—Gasly even said afterwards it was one of his best races of the season from a purely driving perspective—the fact is their car is too slow to overcome bad breaks like the ones they experienced in qualifying. Losing 8th place in the Constructors’ Championship to a significantly improved Williams only rubbed more salt into the wound. I’d be shocked if Alpine made a significant turnaround in Singapore, so it’s clear the team need to take advantage of the break between Singapore and Austin to try (yet again) and make their car competitive.
Forget Baku, all eyes in RB are on what will happen post-Singapore.
Daniel Ricciardo: 13th (Qualified 14th)
Yuki Tsunoda: DNF (Qualified 11th).
Tsunoda’s collision with Stroll on Lap 1 eventually saw him retire the car on Lap 14, making it a second straight retirement for him and a fourth straight race where he failed to score points. It’s an unlucky stretch, but he’ll survive. The same cannot be said for Ricciardo. RB had promised they would make the announcement on his future sometime this month, and the rumor mill has kicked into high gear pre-Singapore. Predictably, the word is RB will attempt their own midseason swap and replace Ricciardo with Liam Lawson starting in Austin. With Ricciardo failing to consistently score points and Haas breathing down their necks, post-Singapore is the perfect time for the team to attempt such a Hail Mary.
Yes, Sauber still exist.
Zhou Guanyu: 14th (Qualified 17th)
Valterri Bottas: 16th (Qualified 16th)
No, they still haven’t scored any points this season.
Miscellaneous Musings:
The Singapore Grand Prix (Formula One’s original night race!) is probably the most physically demanding race of the season, thanks to the track’s twisty nature and the high heat and humidity. It’s also another harbinger of chaos on the calendar, so expect fireworks tomorrow—both literally and figuratively!