An Orange Tsunami
A recap of the 2024 Dutch Grand Prix
Zandvoort, the site of this past weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix, literally translates to “the gate of the sands.” It’s a beautiful circuit situated amongst the sand dunes by the sea, but the beauty masks the fact Zandvoort is often a harbinger of chaos. The older nature of the circuit means there’s less runoff and access in certain areas of the track, so when a crash does occur cars often have to be lifted out by cranes like at a city circuit. It’s no wonder that heading into the weekend there was a 67% probability the safety car would be deployed.
But Sunday’s race saw no safety car. In fact, it didn’t even feature any yellow flags (deployed to force drivers to slow down when there is a hazard on track that needs to be cleared) or retirements. All things considered, it was a calm return from Formula One’s summer break.
But calm doesn’t mean insignificant: there’s a good chance Zandvoort ends up being one of this season’s major inflection points. The subdued nature of the race couldn’t soften the shock that reverberated through the grid as one team (and driver) broke through the gate of sand, wiping everyone else out in an orange tsunami.
McLaren and Lando Norris slaughter the rest of the grid.
Lando Norris: 1st (Qualified 1st)
Oscar Piastri: 4th (Qualified 3rd)
You’d be forgiven for thinking last weekend that the papaya-colored McLaren of Lando Norris was the only car on the track.
The start wasn’t necessarily smooth (where have we heard that before?), but it didn’t matter: Norris absolutely bulldozed the rest of the field at Zandvoort. His 22.896 second margin of victory was the largest this season and the largest since Max Verstappen’s win in Hungary over a year ago. The last time a non-Red Bull car won a race by at least 20 seconds was Charles Leclerc’s victory for Ferrari at Australia in 2022.
In short, what happened last Sunday was a complete and utter annihilation.
I hate to sound like a broken record, but I’ve said since I’ve started covering Formula One that McLaren have the best car on the grid now. The fact it took a result of this magnitude for that to finally become the general consensus is proof of how they’ve been their own worst enemy time after time. This past weekend saw their largest set of upgrades since Miami at the start of May, with the co-centerpieces being a new rear wing and beam wing (a wing located beneath the rear wing near the suspension which also helps redirect airflow, generating downforce that improves the car’s handling and stability). Needless to say, the upgrades worked.
But what the rest of the grid should be scared about isn’t the fact these parts did their job this past weekend, but rather the possibility we haven’t even seen their full potential unleashed. The main purpose of the new wings was to help increase straight-line speed and DRS performance, and those areas aren’t the main priority of this track. Zandvoort is a tight and twisty circuit, and cornering is still key here even if its faster speeds separate it from serpentine cousins such as Monaco and Hungary. This type of track was always going to favor McLaren’s setup, and I do believe they would’ve won even without the upgrades. That these improvements to the car helped turn what would have been an already solid victory into a dominant one makes me think McLaren will still perform well this coming weekend at Monza, where around 80% of a lap will be spent on the throttle.
None of this is to say the gap between McLaren and its nearest rivals will remain this large the rest of season. They were the only ones who brought significant upgrades to Zandvoort, and once rivals start rolling their respective improvements out the gap should narrow (“should” being the operative word there, as shown by Ferrari’s downgrades earlier this summer). But McLaren were already the most consistently competitive car before the summer break, and the fact they’ve returned out of the gates even stronger only ramps up the pressure on its rivals.
But last Sunday was a masterclass by both machine and man, and there’s no chance we would be talking about McLaren’s dominance over the weekend if it weren’t for Norris. I pointed out after Belgium that the criticism of Norris was largely unwarranted, and a weekend like this shows exactly why. He took pole position on Saturday by 0.356 seconds over Verstappen. This is an absolutely insane margin considering Zandvoort is the second shortest track on the calendar. On Sunday, he maintained a similar margin over the course of the entire race and still had enough left to set the fastest lap of the race on the final lap. The upgraded car was an obvious benefit, but it had the impact it did because Norris was able to extract that potential. Case in point: Piastri qualified third but was half a second behind Norris.
Critics of Norris will undoubtedly point out he struggled with the race start once more. This weekend’s race, however, revealed the issue with Norris’s start woes might not lie with him. Verstappen gained the lead thanks to his ability to get to 200 km/h 0.4 seconds faster than Norris despite both having the same reaction time. This, combined with the fact both Norris and Piastri had identical struggles at the start (too much wheelspin), suggest the McLaren might be a more difficult car to launch in general. After all, the launch procedure of a Formula One car isn’t a matter of simply slamming the accelerator once the lights go out. There’s a precise choreography between the hands (feeding the clutch using the paddle switches on the wheel) and feet (careful application of the throttle). You could argue that adapting to a car’s eccentricities is part of a driver’s job. While that may be true, the fact is it’s no longer a simple case of driver error when both both drivers are having the same issues with the start.
The subpar race start also didn’t matter anyway. 0.4 seconds is nothing when you have a car that’s way ahead of everyone else and a great driver who knows how to maximize said car’s potential. Is it fair to say both Norris and McLaren should continue to work on this issue? Yes, and Norris made that just as clear after his win. But using these race start woes to argue Norris isn’t skilled enough to be a world champion or that this past weekend’s result was all about the car instead of the driver is pathetic.
Much of the talk throughout McLaren’s ascendancy this season has centered around the Constructors’ Championship. With nine races to go, the gap between them and Red Bull post-Zandvoort is just 30 points. Considering McLaren outscored Red Bull over the last nine races by a combined total of 85 points it’s clear they, not Red Bull, are the favorites now for the team title. But let me add this: the Drivers’ Championship is still far from over, and I’m not just saying that to cover a technicality. Verstappen is still the favorite given he leads by 70 points, but that margin isn’t safe given Norris will be competitive at every race. There’s a not insignificant possibility Norris can win it all, especially if Red Bull’s upgrades fail to close the gap enough.
What does that “not insignificant possibility” look like? I personally give Norris somewhere between a 1 in 4 chance and a 1 in 3 chance of becoming world champion right now. For simplicity’s sake, I’ll split that difference right down the middle and go with 29.17%. Vegas seems to feel similarly: as of Thursday evening this week the major bookmakers have Norris on +250 odds—a win probability of 28.6%. Visualized another way: 28.6% is the same win probability FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast gave Donald Trump on Election Day 2016.
But enough about McLaren and Lando Norris. After all, there are still eight other teams worth talking about. Yes, I said eight. If you know, you know. If you don’t know, read on until the end.
Red Bull need to rediscover their wings.
Max Verstappen: 2nd (Qualified 2nd)
Sergio Perez: 6th (Qualified 5th)
Red Bull are still leading the Constructors’ Championship, but they’re very much chasers now. While the team admitted they weren’t expecting to compete for the win at Zandvoort, the margin between them and McLaren places enormous pressure on the coming upgrades to make an immediate difference. A fiasco a la Ferrari at this point would end the Constructors’ Championship race and blow the Drivers’ Championship wide open.
With that said, having upgrades only closes the gap so much. As I mentioned with McLaren, a driver’s ability to capitalize on the potential offered by new parts is key. Which is why Red Bull’s hopes of defending the team title rest on the shoulders of…Sergio Perez.
I can sense your confusion. Let me explain.
There’s no doubting Verstappen’s ability to maximize a car’s potential. He’s done that this season as Red Bull’s car advantage dissipated. It’s why he still has a ~71% chance at retaining the drivers’ title. But the results of both cars matter for the team championship, and Verstappen cannot hold off two McLarens (not to mention two Mercedes and two Ferraris undoubtedly looking to play spoiler) on his own. To expect him to do so would be like expecting an NFL quarterback to throw and catch the ball at the same time. Even the all-time greats have their limits, and Verstappen’s no exception.
Perez matters because he’s Red Bull’s damage control on-track. When Verstappen isn’t able to cruise to victory week after week (as has increasingly been the case this season), the team need Perez to deliver in order to help protect the team’s lead in the Constructors’ Championship and hold off Verstappen’s title rivals. Unfortunately, Perez’s attempts at damage control the last few months have gone about as well as plugging a leak with cotton candy. He’s only scored 36 points across the past nine races. Sure, there were two retirements in that span. But George Russell has scored 41 points over the past five races for Mercedes, and that’s despite him having one retirement and one disqualification during that stretch. A P6 finish this past weekend was Perez’s best result since Miami in May. Yet it’s hard to view this as a positive given he ended up behind the two Ferraris (he started ahead of both) and came nowhere close to fighting Piastri’s McLaren. The only reason this weekend isn’t a negative (at least in the short-term) is because it’s at least enough to keep his job the rest of the season. You might wonder why that still matters given Red Bull had moved during the summer break to confirm they were sticking by Perez. If that’s the case, I highly encourage you to scroll down to the Williams section of this recap.
Monza this weekend appears on paper like the perfect opportunity for Red Bull to rediscover their wings due to their car’s superior aerodynamic efficiency. It’s a clear chance for them to put up badly needed points after the recent slide, but it’s also a double-edged sword: a further loss of points versus McLaren or even a draw would be a death knell.
Ferrari’s latest gymnastics routine confounds everyone.
Charles Leclerc: 3rd (Qualified 6th)
Carlos Sainz: 5th (Qualified 10th)
No team this season has managed to twist themselves into as many uncomfortable positions as Ferrari have. I’m convinced if they entered the gymnastics competition at the Olympics they would have given Simone Biles a run for her money. Despite showing horrendous pace before Sunday’s race, a strong drive and great strategic calls (undercutting with Leclerc on Lap 24 was brilliant given the importance of track position on this circuit) saw them notch their best result since Monaco.
That Ferrari showed decent race pace—it’s hard to say great when you compare it to what McLaren and Norris managed—stunned most commentators. I would argue, however, that the real shock was the other way around and that their qualifying pace was the actual surprise. This brings us to the most complicated of all of Ferrari’s contortions: what their car offers in theory and what their car offers in practice seem diametrically opposed to each other. On paper, their car has lower drag and excels in short corners. This is why some think they’ll be extremely competitive at Monza with new upgrades. But the reality is their best results the last few months—Monaco, the Netherlands, and Hungary—have come on tracks where those strengths become weaknesses (I know their P3-P6 finish at Spa technically beats their P4-P6 in Hungary, but everyone got moved up a position in Belgium thanks to Russell’s disqualification). Some have suggested the delta between Ferrari’s qualifying and race pace this past weekend is down to the car being less abrasive on its tires. Better tire wear is disadvantageous in qualifying when you need to get maximum grip for one flying lap but advantageous in race stints when you need the tires to last. Yet qualifying was not an issue for Ferrari in Monaco or Hungary, and things only get more confusing when factoring in Spa (a high-speed, low downforce circuit that suits a lower drag setup), where they showed great qualifying pace but couldn’t fully translate that speed to the race itself. The notorious downgrades introduced in Spain may have played a role in this conundrum, but the team had removed those by the time Silverstone came around two races later.
Building the best car in Formula One is a matter of finding the right balance, yet it seems like in trying to strike that equilibrium Ferrari have instead ended up with a titration: something completely neutral. That isn’t objectively bad—if it was we’d just call it bad. But there’s a reason why “neutral” has never been a term used to describe victors either. You can’t go anywhere at the end of the day if you’re stuck in neutral.
Mercedes return from summer break with a hangover.
George Russell: 7th (Qualified 4th)
Lewis Hamilton: 8th (Qualified 14th)
Mercedes entered the break having won three of the last four races. You wouldn’t know that watching them last weekend, where the entire team appeared like it was operating with a massive hangover. A poor qualifying doomed Hamilton’s race from the start, and P8 was pretty much the best he could’ve managed. A slow pit stop by Russell in response to Leclerc’s undercut meant he lost track position. All of this might not have mattered if Mercedes showed the pace they did before the break. But that speed never materialized. Mercedes ran through all three tire compounds on Sunday’s race and lacked pace on all of them. Furthermore, unexpectedly high tire degradation meant they had to switch to a two-stop strategy. And they still couldn’t set the fastest lap with fresher tires. It was a race that left the entire team scratching their head in disbelief.
Given the strong run Mercedes enjoyed before the break, there’s no reason for a full-blown panic attack yet. Unless this hangover persists well into September, Zandvoort may just be a blip on the radar. A very confusing blip, but a blip nonetheless.
The Oliver Oakes era at Alpine begins with a smooth takeoff.
Pierre Gasly: 9th (Qualified 9th)
Esteban Ocon: 15th (Qualified 15th)
Alpine have always been a moth drawn to the flame of chaos, so it must come as a relief to new Team Principal Oliver Oakes that his start had quite a smooth takeoff. Oakes’s first race weekend saw Gasly’s solid performance claim valuable points for the team. Kudos to Gasly, who was definitely the star of the midfield at Zandvoort (which isn’t something you can easily say about an Alpine even when they do score points).
In other Alpine news, the Oakes era also began with an official announcement that reserve driver Jack Doohan will be taking over Ocon’s seat in 2025. It’s a move that makes sense given the broader restructuring that seems to be going on at the team. Having new faces in a sport as exclusive as Formula One is always exciting, but for those excited to see how he will do I’d hold off on making any big proclamations: how much he’s able to show and accomplish will depend on whatever tractor car Alpine bring to the grid next season.
A metaphorical car crash (and a literal one too) for Aston Martin.
Fernando Alonso: 10th (Qualified 7th))
Lance Stroll: 13th (Qualified 8th)
Losing out in the midfield—to Alpine of all teams—sums up how much of a car crash season Aston Martin have had. Scoring points is hard enough when the top four teams are so much better than the rest of the grid. Even though they’re still technically fifth in the team championship and the best of the rest by default, it’s discouraging for Aston that Alonso failed to get past Gasly’s Alpine—something that seemed impossible to imagine at the season’s start.
It probably would’ve looked worse for Alonso if it weren’t for his teammate. Stroll was initially on pace to out-qualify Alonso, but mistakes at the end of his lap left him starting behind instead. Those mistakes continued into Sunday’s race, with the 5 second penalty he picked up for speeding in the pit lane dropping him down from 12th to 13th. Not that finishing 12th would have been any less embarrassing for him: failing to pass Nico Hulkenberg’s Haas despite having much fresher tires is just another example of how Aston have let initially worse teams catch up.
The car crashes at Aston Martin haven’t been all metaphorical either. During a test run at Monza on Thursday, the Aston Martin safety car—which remember, is meant to promote safety and slow cars down—crashed. I suppose James Bond would be proud.
Haas pay late—in more ways than one.
Nico Hulkenberg: 11th (Qualified 12th)
Kevin Magnussen: 18th (Started from the pit lane)
Haas had the right idea in terms of strategy when it came to Hulkenberg’s race, but the execution transformed what should have been a mundane undercut into an extraordinary one that saw him drive almost 80% of the race (57 of 72 laps) on the same set of hard tires. In some ways the undercut worked: Hulkenberg still gained a position, and a two-stopper would have probably ruined his race. But Haas paid the price for stopping early later on, as younger tires would have definitely helped him hold off both Gasly and Alonso for a points finish. Ending just outside of the points in 11th (the sixth time Hulkenberg has done so this season) after running in the top ten for much of the race, then, is disappointing.
But Haas didn’t just pay late on the track. A legal dispute with former sponsor Urakali over unpaid refunds (Haas had cancelled its partnership with the Russian company after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) caused Dutch authorities to seize the team’s assets at the start of the weekend. For a second, it looked as if Haas’s participation in Monza was in jeopardy. Owner Gene Haas confirmed the refund had been paid, but economic sanctions against Russia meant the payment was delayed while the money was routed through the Middle East. Urakali’s confirmation earlier this week that it had received payment finally allowed Haas to leave the Netherlands for Italy, but it’s wild to think Haas were almost unable to participate this weekend due to something so random. Then again, there also wouldn’t be anything that screamed “Haas” more.
Could RB replace Daniel Ricciardo mid-season?
Daniel Ricciardo: 12th (Qualified 13th)
Yuki Tsunoda: 17th (Qualified 11th)
Zandvoort marked the one year anniversary of RB’s current game of driver musical chairs. Luckily for Ricciardo, there was no freak injury this year. But a year after the broken metacarpal bone that opened the door for Liam Lawson to step in and impress it’s clear Ricciardo hasn’t done enough to show why RB should keep him on. The head-to-head between him and Tsunoda hasn’t been horrible—Ricciardo only trails 6-7 in races where both have finished. The difference is while six of Tsunoda’s seven “wins” have come with a finish in the points, the same can only be said for three of Ricciardo’s six. At the end of the day, finishing ahead of your teammate doesn’t matter as much if you’re still failing to score points for the team. The September announcement on Lawson’s future looms large, and Zandvoort felt like Ricciardo’s last chance to prove himself. He probably didn’t do enough.
I would be surprised at this point if RB stuck with Ricciardo instead of Lawson for 2025. However, the team’s steadfast refusal to loan Lawson out suggests they’re seriously considering the possibility of bringing him in even earlier. It would make sense: RB are only seven points ahead of Haas in the Constructors’ Championship. They’re desperate to stay ahead, and they’ve already seen from last year that Lawson can deliver a points finish. Assuming he’s already the frontrunner for the second seat at RB next season, it wouldn’t do any harm to have him start earlier.
Williams end Logan Sargeant’s time in Formula One with a bang.
Alex Albon: 14th (Qualified 19th)
Logan Sargeant: 16th (Qualified 18th)
A quick word on Alex Albon: the upgrades Williams brought to Zandvoort initially yielded results, as Albon provisionally qualified an impressive 8th. However, he was soon disqualified from qualifying and forced to start from the back after it was found his floor was in breach of technical regulations—by 0.3 millimeters. To be clear: there’s no way a such a small difference accounted for a noticeable performance improvement. In that respect, Williams should be pleased with their upgrades. But rules are rules, and both the team and Albon will be disappointed something like this ultimately decided whether or not they left the race with points.
The real story for Williams, however, involves Logan Sargeant. After officially firing Sargeant over the summer break by announcing Sainz as his replacement next season, Williams followed last weekend by essentially firing him again—this time with immediate effect. Franco Colapinto will be Williams’s second driver starting this weekend.
The last straw was likely the fiery crash Sargeant sustained in the third free practice session, which was especially frustrating given the car was newly upgraded. That being said, Team Principal James Vowles stressed the need to “score points”—something Sargeant has only done once over his entire Formula One career—as the reason for replacing him now.
The question is, what points?
It would be one thing if Williams had shown so far they could consistently fight for points. But the team have only scored 4 points so far. If Albon is also struggling to score points I’m not sure Colapinto will do much better. Williams had Colapinto drive a practice session at Silverstone in July, and it wasn’t clear there he would be an upgrade from Sargeant (he was actually slower). The new upgrades to the car might make Williams more competitive and allow Colapinto to prove people wrong, but it doesn’t mean they’ll automatically be able to score points. After all, they’re not the only team that has made improvements.
The other confusing aspect of the switch is the timing of it all. It would be one thing if Williams wanted to go down a similar route as RB and replace Sargeant with Colapinto in 2025, but they already have Sargeant’s long-term replacement in Sainz. So what is the point of moving Colapinto up to Formula One if you’re already going to sideline him next season?
None of this is to criticize Colapinto. But this move by Williams feels both reactionary and lacking vision (both in the short and long term). It’s also unfortunate for Sargeant, who most likely has no future in Formula One and will have to look elsewhere in motorsport for a drive. It’s not impossible for a driver to come back after losing their seat on the grid—Albon did exactly that. But a return to Formula One naturally comes with starting somewhere lower on the grid than where you previously were. Albon lost a Red Bull seat, meaning he was always going to be considered by a lower-tier side like Williams. If Sargeant isn’t even good enough for Williams, what other team would consider him? Not even Sauber would be that desperate.
Speaking of Sauber…
Yes, Sauber still exist.
Valterri Bottas: 19th (Qualified 16th)
Zhou Guanyu: 20th (Qualified 17th)
No, they still haven’t scored any points this season.
Miscellaneous Musings:
Monza, the site of this weekend’s Italian Grand Prix, is called the “Temple of Speed” for good reason: the average speed of the fastest laps on this track break the 150 mph (~241 km/h) barrier. If you’re in a need for speed, this race is for you.