Stormy Silverstone's Golden Fairytale
A recap of the 2024 British Grand Prix
Although the stormy weather that dominated the weekend at Silverstone was always a clue we’d be in for a phenomenal British Grand Prix, no one could have quite predicted the absolutely golden fairytale the race ended up producing. In a season filled with its own fair share of great races and even more incredible narratives, this one arguably outshone them all.
Before getting into the recap, I highly encourage you all to read my Austria and midseason recap. It’s a long post, but since it’s one I’ll occasionally be referencing it might be helpful for understanding more about what I’m discussing here and about the 2024 Formula One season in general. Plus, a lot of what I said there still holds up. Even if it’s only been one race, that’s surely a positive sign the post wasn’t complete trash, right?
The weekend belonged to Lewis Hamilton (and by extension Mercedes).
Lewis Hamilton: 1st (Qualified 2nd)
George Russell: DNF (Qualified 1st)
Let’s get (some of) the records out of the way: by winning this past weekend for the first time since Saudi Arabia in 2021, Hamilton becomes the first driver to win nine times at a single circuit, finish on the podium 15 times at a single race, and win a race after passing 300 grand prix starts. And that’s before we even get to the fact this was a record extending 104th win for him. He delivered a masterful drive under tough conditions that saw him keep Mercedes in contention for the win, take advantage when the other contenders messed up, and hang on until the end. Hamilton critics take note: if you’re wondering why Ferrari signed him even after his recent dry spell, this is why.
I wrote last week that you shouldn’t underestimate Mercedes’s win in Austria no matter how lucky it was. Did a tiny bit of luck go their way again this week? Sure. But I’m going to reiterate what I said before: this is a team that’s going to be in contention the rest of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Hamilton on the top step of the podium again before the end of the season, but if this was indeed his last hurrah for Mercedes before he moves to Ferrari next season we couldn’t have asked for a more perfect finale. It doesn’t get much better than a final home win with the team that changed the trajectory of your career and helped make you the greatest Formula One driver of all time by pretty much every available metric.
Regardless of whether or not Hamilton is your favorite driver on the grid, it was impossible not to be moved by the scenes that followed his victory. Even if it didn’t always look like we were headed for this outcome throughout the weekend, it was only fitting that Hamilton walked away the winner in every sense of the word.
A quick word on Russell: the retirement on Lap 34 due to a suspected water system issue was an incredibly unfortunate end to his race. Though I think Hamilton’s superior mastery of the conditions meant Russell would’ve likely finished behind Hamilton despite Russell starting on pole, I’m pretty certain he was on track for a finish somewhere in the top 5.
Max Verstappen rescues Red Bull’s weekend once more.
Max Verstappen: 2nd (Qualified 4th)
Sergio Perez: 17th (Qualified 19th)
I said after Austria Red Bull were hanging on more because of Verstappen’s skills as a driver than because of their car, and Silverstone proved that once more. Despite more struggles with the car, Verstappen did incredibly well to keep the car within touching distance of the McLaren and Mercedes duos in front. That allowed him to take advantage of Red Bull getting both the timing of the switch to intermediate tires and the switch back to hard slicks correct and finish on the podium.
While Verstappen’s cemented himself as the Red Bull kingdom’s knight in shining armor, Perez is quickly cementing himself as the court jester. He came into the weekend under pressure to perform and proceeded to spin out in the first round of qualifying. With the variable conditions at Silverstone, any hope of Perez fighting his way into the points were quickly scrapped as he was relegated into being a guinea pig for determining when Verstappen should switch to the intermediate tires. A finish outside the points means that Perez has only scored 15 points over the last six races. Verstappen over the same period? 119.
Team Principal Christian Horner described the current situation as “unsustainable.” There have already been suggestions that Red Bull should break Perez’s contract extension and bring in someone else next season (if not earlier). All of this speculation is unsurprising—if Red Bull renewed Perez on the belief he could still score points with the car they have like I said last week, this weekend failed to live up to anyone’s expectations. While the suggestion of a contract break right now is extreme, the implication is not: Perez is once again in the hot seat.
McLaren played to not lose. So they ended up losing.
Lando Norris: 3rd (Qualified 3rd)
Oscar Piastri: 4th (Qualified 5th)
McLaren should’ve gotten a 1-2 finish this weekend. Instead, they only have themselves to blame for completely binning it.
As the rain started to pour down, McLaren continued to push forwards. Even with DRS (drag reduction system) disabled for safety purposes, both cars passed their rivals with ease and soldiered to the front of the pack. By Lap 20, they were firmly in control of the race.
And then they shot themselves in the foot.
McLaren faced a dilemma. They could attempt a double stack—a maneuver where both cars pit at the same time in quick succession—and switch both Norris and Piastri onto intermediate tires. That Piastri was under a second behind Norris at the time meant the question was whether the 2-3 seconds he was guaranteed to lose waiting in the pits while the pit crew switched Norris’s tires first was a worthy trade-off. Despite the worsening conditions rendering the double stack as the optimal move, McLaren chose instead to keep Piastri out. The result: he lost about 20 seconds on his subsequent lap. Given Piastri finished just over 12 seconds behind Hamilton, there’s no doubt he would’ve been in contention for the win had McLaren accepted the 2-3 seconds and double stacked.
The team made up for their mistake with Piastri and evened things out—by proceeding to shoot themselves in the other foot. As the rain stopped and the track dried up, they were faced with the question of which slick tire to switch Norris on. The answer here was rather obvious. Unlike Mercedes and Red Bull, McLaren had a set of new medium tires available. Given Silverstone is one of the most demanding tracks on tires, the new mediums were the perfect choice to see Norris through the final dozen laps of the race. Listening in on Piastri’s radio seemingly confirms the data also showed the mediums to be superior. Yet Norris’s side of the garage proceeded to frame the tire choice as such: go on the soft tires to cover Hamilton in second, or go on the mediums to cover Verstappen in third. They may have gone for the logical move of covering the driver in second, but the damage had been done once they framed the issue in the way they did. A longer pit stop meant he came out of the pits behind Hamilton, and Hamilton’s superior management of the used tires meant Norris couldn’t catch up with him. Even worse, the shorter lifespan of the used softs meant he was also passed by Verstappen on hard tires that were less worn and therefore had superior grip.
You could say the blame for this call goes both ways. Norris was surely aware the team still had the new mediums and perhaps should’ve pushed harder for them. But the vast majority of the blame here falls with the team. It was their mistake presenting a completely false binary to Norris when the medium tires were the goldilocks solution that covered both Hamilton and Verstappen.
I said last week McLaren have the best car right now. Their superior performance before any strategy was involved showed that’s still the case. But Formula One is like poker—having the best hand (or car in this case) doesn’t matter if you’re failing to make the right calls. And like poker, part of making the right calls in Formula One means realizing you’ll eventually have to go all in if you want to win. McLaren’s failure to trust what they’ve built meant they were unwilling to do that this past weekend. Instead of playing to win, they played to not lose. So naturally, they lost.
Ferrari’s answers come too little, too late.
Carlos Sainz: 5th (Qualified 7th)
Charles Leclerc: 14th (Qualified 11th)
After much hand wringing, Ferrari decided this week to revert to the car they had before they started adding upgrades downgrades. While that might’ve helped the overall performance of their car this week, the result shows even their pre-upgrade car is falling behind their rivals. A top 5 finish for Sainz looks positive, but he was 35 seconds behind Piastri in 4th place while only 8 seconds ahead of Nico Hulkenberg in 6th. And that’s before you realize Russell probably would’ve pushed Sainz into 6th had he been able to finish the race. As for Leclerc, Ferrari’s desperation for—not to mention lack of—answers meant he went into this weekend with a suboptimal setup and failed to make the last qualifying session. His race was over once the team made the mistake of transferring him onto intermediate tires way too early.
I said last week Ferrari’s engineering department seemed unlikely to offer them the answers they need anytime soon. The shock resignation of Enrico Cardile (Technical Director for the Chassis Area) after the weekend suggests that may continue for the near future. The loss of key personnel, plus their decision to officially ditch the changes they made to the car, will only continue to keep their season in limbo. They might not be slow enough to write off the season as a loss, but right now they’re also no longer fast enough to be consistently competitive with the front of the pack.
The boulder keeps rolling up at Haas.
Nico Hulkenberg: 6th (Qualified 6th)
Kevin Magnussen: 12th (Qualified 17th)
A second 6th place finish in two weeks deserves a round of applause for Formula One’s historically most laughable team. They now find themselves just 4 points behind RB for 6th in the Constructors’ Championship and will surely look to capitalize on this momentum. Looking beyond RB, leapfrogging Aston Martin for 5th may be too big a mountain to climb. They’ll definitely continue to steal points from them though: Hulkenberg’s 22 points on the season is only one less than Lance Stroll’s 23. For now, the boulder keeps rolling up the hill.
Aston Martin stop the backslide.
Lance Stroll: 7th (Qualified 8th)
Fernando Alonso: 8th (Qualified 10th)
A points finish for both Aston Martins was exactly what the team needed after a dreary couple of weeks. With 68 points on the season they’re solidly ahead of the chasing pack of RB/Haas but incredibly behind the frontrunners (Mercedes are fourth but have 221 points). Barring significant collapses by the rivals upfront (unlikely) coupled with significant improvements to their own car (even more unlikely), the team will have to settle for a spot in purgatory the rest of the season. It’s not ideal for a team that wants to be taken seriously. But it could be worse (see: Alpine).
Williams have a good week. They know it could have been better.
Alex Albon: 9th (Qualified 9th)
Logan Sargeant: 11th (Qualified 12th)
Any points scoring week for Williams is a good week, but the team won’t walk away from last weekend feeling like they performed at their maximum level. That’s all down to Sargeant’s continued underperformance. A season best 11th place finish for him might seem like a positive step towards keeping his job next season, but the reality is he was once again off Albon’s pace despite pieces of his teammate’s car flying off early on in the race.
I mentioned after Austria that Williams was running out of patience with Sargeant. After Silverstone, Team Principal James Vowles’s comments on Williams being “a meritocracy” and the team “continually evaluating” replacing him midseason indicates just how bleak things are. The team know that their car isn’t the best. It’s why they need to get all the points they can on the rare occasion they manage to be competitive. And Sargeant has proven himself incapable of helping them do that.
RB’s driver carousel continues to go around—with an added twist.
Yuki Tsunoda: 10th (Qualified 13th)
Daniel Ricciardo: 13th (Qualified 15th)
Another quiet week for RB mean they’re now in grave danger of being leapfrogged by Haas, but the main story surrounding the team continues to be the question of who their second driver will be. Ricciardo finishing behind Tsunoda again will not help his case for staying on, but it turns out he might have a get out of jail free card to play. The driver turmoil at the sister Red Bull team means that should Red Bull take drastic action and renege on Perez’s extension there would be enough open seats between the two teams to go around for both Ricciardo and Liam Lawson. However, that scenario is still a very big if at this stage. It certainly shouldn’t be something Ricciardo is counting on. For now, the carousel keeps spinning.
Alpine and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Weekend.
Esteban Ocon: 16th (Qualified 18th)
Pierre Gasly: DNS (Qualified 20th)
An unfortunate miscommunication in qualifying saw Ocon mistakenly believe he had one more opportunity to push for a higher position in qualifying when he didn’t. While the error doomed his race, his weekend at least ended up better than his teammate’s. Gasly came into the race with five new power unit components. The problem? He exceeded his allocation for the season, meaning he received a 10 place grid penalty—for each component.
Yes, Gasly received a 50 place grid penalty. Yes, the full Formula One grid is still only 20 places long. No, this is not the record—that honor goes to Jenson Button’s 70 place penalty at the 2015 Mexican Grand Prix. Why would Alpine do this? Since these penalties don’t carry over across multiple races, it’s better to make it pour if you’re already planning on making it rain.
Unfortunately for Gasly, none of it mattered in the end. A gearbox problem on the formation lap Sunday meant he ended up retiring before the race began. Not much you can say about that.
Yes, Sauber still exist.
Valterri Bottas: 15th (Qualified 16th)
Zhou Guanyu: 18th (Qualified 14th)
No, they still haven’t scored any points this season.
Miscellaneous Musings:
Formula One is off this week! I know Omakase Formula’s beginning has been filled to the brim with it, and I appreciate everyone’s patience. You can expect some of the changes of topic (and formula) I promised in the introductory post very soon!