Don't Ignore Occam's Razor
A recap of the 2024 Mexico City Grand Prix
The cliché fun fact about the Grand Prix in Mexico City is that it’s Formula One’s “highest race.” It’s frankly a lazy fun fact. What’s a lot more interesting is the consequences the high altitude of Mexico City bring. Keeping the engine cool is a challenge, meaning teams will often bring special bodywork with additional cooling louvers. This will increase drag and decrease downforce, but the lower air density means the effects of higher drag are felt much less than they normally would be. In fact, Mexico will often see some of the season’s highest top speeds despite the fact teams will run high-downforce wings (Oscar Piastri reached 362.5 km/h, or 225.25 mph, at this year’s race).
If you’re a reader of Omakase Formula but aren’t into Formula One, I apologize. Those facts probably weren’t much more “fun” than if I’d droned on about how high above sea level Mexico City is.
So here’s the real fun fact about the grand prix in CDMX: the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez (the official name of the racetrack) runs through a baseball stadium. Yes, you read that correctly (see the photo above). It makes for one of the most unique atmospheres in the sport, though I suppose it only matters if you’re watching in-person. And even if you watched last week’s race from the comfort of home, I highly doubt the lack of any atmosphere mattered when the racing itself was spicy and action-filled.
Ferrari continue to run red-hot.
Carlos Sainz: 1st (Qualified 1st)
Charles Leclerc: 3rd (Qualified 4th)
Ferrari’s success in Austin was always going to bode well for their fortunes in Mexico, and they’ll undoubtedly be satisfied with a double podium in this race. The result could have gone even better for the team: Leclerc was in second for most of the race, but a huge slide coming out of the final corner on Lap 62 while under pressure from a charging Lando Norris meant he dropped to third. Having said that, the moment could have played out much worse, and it was a heroic save from Leclerc to keep his car out of the wall. Ferrari then utilized the massive gap between Leclerc and George Russell’s Mercedes in fourth for a free pit stop so Leclerc could set the fastest lap of the race on soft tires and earn a bonus point.
For Sainz, this victory (the fourth of his career) will surely mean a lot. There’s a chance this may be his last victory with Ferrari before he makes way for Lewis Hamilton in 2025 (though you never know with how Ferrari are performing right now). More importantly, there’s a chance this could be the last time he finds himself on the top step of a Formula One podium. Sainz’s career will obviously continue with Williams next year. But as much as Williams will boast about having a solid and experienced driver pairing in 2025 with him and Alex Albon (the appendix-less bros!), the chances they’ll be in a car that’s competitive enough to regularly challenge for podiums (not to mention wins) feel slim. And at 30 years old, the odds of a top team signing him in the future also aren’t great. I know it sounds ridiculous to say that, especially since Hamilton will be racing for Ferrari at 40 years old. But Hamilton’s a living legend of the sport, the GOAT by pretty much every metric that matters. Sainz, while by no means a slouch, hasn’t had the type of career that warrants the same kind of consideration from top teams like Hamilton’s does. Just look at Mercedes’s decision to replace to Hamilton with Kimi Antonelli. They knew that Sainz was available, but they chose to bet on the youth prospect instead. So while I’m all for a late-career renaissance, Sainz having one at Williams and launching himself back to a top team seems unlikely on paper. Victory in Mexico, then, not only gives him a potential final taste of glory, but also an audition tape for top teams in case any of them do decide to make a driver switch in the next year or two while his time at Ferrari remains somewhat fresh in everyone’s memory.
As a team, however, Ferrari are undoubtedly feeling very good. The gap to McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship to McLaren is now down to just 29 points. They might have been on the receiving end of some good fortune (see McLaren below), but their pace the last two races mean they’ll feel somewhat confident about closing what is a very small gap over the remaining four races.
McLaren’s solid race won’t quite ease their nerves over both championships.
Lando Norris: 2nd (Qualified 3rd)
Oscar Piastri: 8th (Qualified 17th)
The goal for McLaren last Sunday was, as Team Principal Andrea Stella stated post-race, to finish ahead of where they started. By that barometer, McLaren accomplished their goal. But the solid result won’t do much to alleviate any long-term concerns the team might have in the battle for both championships.
Norris finished ahead of Verstappen, which was half the battle. More important was the fact Verstappen incurred multiple penalties in the latest battle between the top two racers in the Drivers’ Championship, meaning Norris was able to eat into Verstappen’s championship lead significantly. That being said, the 10 points he gained on Verstappen are still arguably not enough. With four races left (not including the two sprint races in Brazil and Qatar) and the gap at 47 points, Norris needs to outscore Verstappen by an average of 12 points per weekend to eke out the championship. That he came close this week is obviously a sign that it’s possible, but Verstappen did a lot of the legwork for him by driving recklessly. Other unforeseeable issues might come in to help McLaren, but they’re at the point now where Norris essentially needs to keep rolling sixes if he wants to end the season world champion. It’s not impossible—crazier things have happened in Formula One. But the fact the task remains daunting even after a good week like this one for Norris shows the scale of the challenge on paper.
To make things more nerve-racking for McLaren, they also have to genuinely worry about their lead in the Constructors’ Championship as well. After scoring 27 points less than Ferrari in Austin, Piastri’s early elimination in qualifying meant McLaren started Sunday’s race on the back foot. And while Piastri worked his way back into the points, the double podium by Sainz and Leclerc meant McLaren scored 19 points less than Ferrari in Mexico. It’s hard to believe it was only in Azerbaijan three races ago that McLaren finally took the lead from Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship considering they’re now realistically in danger of losing it, but that’s what happens when one of the hallmarks of your season has been leaving points on the table as a result of dodgy decisions. Much like with the Drivers’ Championship, then, McLaren also have little room to maneuver in the team championship. Mexico was a good start in terms of running a clean and mistake-free race, and they’ll need to make sure that stays the norm the rest of the season if they hope to end the season with at least one championship.
Mercedes rebound in Mexico.
Lewis Hamilton: 4th (Qualified 6th)
George Russell: 5th (Qualified 5th)
After a disappointing week in Austin, Mercedes will be satisfied with their result in Mexico. In terms of overall race pace, they probably finished around where they deserved to be (if not slightly better considering the misfortune of Piastri and the madness of Verstappen). With both championships out of grasp, it’s no surprise that both Russell and Team Principal Toto Wolff stressed after the race that the focus the remainder of the year is to try new things and set themselves up for 2025.
This realization and shift in focus towards next year would also explain the decision by the team to forgo team orders and let Hamilton and Russell battle each other throughout the race. With Russell having picked up front wing damage early on in his stint on the hard tires and losing time, Mercedes could have given the order for Hamilton to pass. But with their car lacking the pace of the front three and also not being in danger of losing their positions to any car behind them, doing so would have been unnecessary and perhaps even detrimental. After all, even if Hamilton might be their number one driver right now, it’s Russell who will be their number one starting next season. From a team cohesion point of view, asking the driver you’ll still be working with next year to move aside for someone who will be in a rival garage wouldn’t exactly be a reassuring show of support and trust, and Mercedes are a smart enough organization to know that.
Chaos reigns supreme at Red Bull.
Max Verstappen: 6th (Qualified 2nd)
Sergio Perez: 17th (Qualified 18th)
There’s no other way to describe Verstappen’s racing against Norris in Mexico other than chaotic and reckless. While he may have technically been in the right in Austin, there was no defense for the two moves he made on his championship rival on Lap 10. First, Verstappen forced Norris off the track as Norris attempted to pass him at Turn 4. Unlike in Austin, Norris looked to be ahead at the apex this time around. And when Norris rightly didn’t yield the position he had gained back to Verstappen, Verstappen pulled an incredibly late lunge to force Norris off the track again at Turn 8 to re-pass him. It was such a hopelessly desperate and sloppy move that it was shocking the team didn’t order Verstappen to give the position back to avoid taking a penalty, and ultimately the stewards slapped him with two 10-second penalties (one for each incident).
I do want to address one curious thing I saw online after the race though: some people were saying Verstappen’s driving in Mexico was some 4D chess move to hold up Norris and prevent him from finishing any higher than he did in the race. The argument is that Norris was held up in those encounters just enough that it cost him the ability to catch Sainz at the end of the race. Frankly, there are more holes in this theory than a fishing net. Going off the 4.705 seconds Norris finished behind Sainz ignores the fact Sainz was relatively untested for most of the race and would have raced harder and faster had Norris caught him earlier, so using the race-winning margin as evidence is already an incorrect barometer. Second, the argument is that the 10 points Norris gained on Verstappen would’ve been larger had Verstappen not fought. But this only hinges on a scenario where Norris wins and Verstappen finishes fourth or worse. In a world where Sainz does ramp up the pace or Norris fails to take the lead, the gap between the two would have only been 6 points instead of 10 if Verstappen finished fourth. And considering Leclerc’s near wipeout towards the end of the race, there’s the possibility that if Verstappen were in fourth and closing in on Leclerc he could’ve finished third anyway, meaning the gap would either be 3 points if Norris finished second or 10 points if Norris won.
The most damning part of this speculation, however, is that it completely ignores the simplest explanation for why Verstappen raced the way he did in the first place. The most guaranteed way for Norris to not gain on Verstappen in the championship is if Norris doesn’t finish the race or receives car damage and finishes outside the points. Even if Verstappen also doesn’t score points, a zero-zero draw is still a win for Verstappen since he’s the one that leads the championship. It’s a cynical explanation. But while I won’t claim Verstappen intended to take Norris out of the race, I also do think it's a lot more plausible than Verstappen calculating all the possible permutations in the blink of an eye and concluding with certainty he would finish no better than fourth while Norris was on track to win. And that’s even before we consider the part where Verstappen’s “calculations” meant he believed taking on 20 seconds worth of penalties and a sixth place finish would be worth it. The moral of this story masquerading as a theory? Don’t ignore Occam’s razor.
And if you want to push back on the idea that Verstappen would maliciously intend to take Norris out of the race, I see your Hanlon’s razor. And while I would love to believe no Formula One world champion would ever resort to this kind of tactic and that it was all stupid racecraft, I’ll raise you with Michael Schumacher at the 1994 Australian Grand Prix (which won him the first of seven world championships—a joint record) and the 1997 European Grand Prix (which made him the first—and so far only—driver in history to be disqualified from a Formula One Drivers’ Championship). Stupidity is believing Norris should respond to Verstappen’s aggression by crashing into him. Which is exactly what Juan Pablo Montoya, who drove for both Williams and McLaren from 2001-2006, suggested Norris do. I’ll leave you to guess how many world championships Montoya won.
Verstappen’s race may have been chaotic, but he wasn’t the only catalyst for any headaches at Red Bull last weekend. Perez’s early exit in qualifying at his home race was bad enough. But unlike Piastri, he was never close to finishing in the points. A 5-second penalty for a false start killed any possible momentum, and the final nail in the coffin came at Turn 4 on Lap 19, when a battle with Liam Lawson left Perez with damage to his car’s floor edge and sidepod. The damage to the car can be attributed to bad luck, but it doesn’t make up for the fact Perez shouldn’t have been anywhere close to squabbling with Lawson in the first place. So while Perez can stand by his claim on the radio that Lawson is an “idiot” all he wants, it’s not exactly a great look that he got himself dragged into a fight with one and lost. And it’s even worse considering said “idiot” might be the one to take his seat.
Haas capitalize on their potential.
Kevin Magnussen: 7th (Qualified 7th)
Nico Hulkenberg: 9th (Qualified 10th)
The feeling at Haas after Austin was that, while the team had a solid result, they left points on the table. That wasn’t the case in Mexico, as they scored their third double points of the finish of the season to move 10 points clear of RB in the Constructors’ Championship. While they’re 40 points behind Aston Martin and unlikely to catch them by the end of the season, it’s also worth pointing out Haas have actually outscored Aston since the summer break. It’s yet another sign of how much Haas have improved, not only between last season (when they finished last) and this season, but over the course of 2024 as well. Out of all of the mid-tier teams, they are by far the most exciting to watch the rest of the season.
Alpine show signs of life.
Pierre Gasly: 10th (Qualified 8th)
Esteban Ocon: 13th (Pit lane start)
You could argue that Alpine first showed signs of life in Austin given Gasly’s strong qualifying there. But the only top-line number that truly matters is the one next to your name indicating where you finished. By that metric, Gasly’s top 10 finish in Mexico will be the result that truly matters. In further good news for the team, Williams failing to get a car in the points means Alpine have clawed one point back in the fight to finish eighth in the team championship. It’s not exactly a glamorous fight, and a 3-point gap isn’t as easy to make up over four races as it sounds if you’re a team that’s struggled to consistently score points the whole season. That being said, there’s pride and—more importantly—greater prize money on the line for Alpine here, so they’ll no doubt hope their result in Mexico will offer a springboard for them moving forward.
Aston Martin offers little to celebrate for Alonso’s milestone grand prix.
Lance Stroll: 11th (Qualified 14th)
Fernando Alonso: DNF (Qualified 13th)
Mexico marked Alonso’s 400th grand prix entry, making him the the first Formula One driver to reach the milestone. That being said, the weekend offer him and the team nothing to celebrate beyond the occasion itself. A brake cooling issue meant Alonso was forced to retire the car after 15 laps, and Stroll failing to finish in the points meant the team walked away from the weekend empty-handed.
Alonso struck the most positive note he could after a disappointing weekend, pointing out afterwards that the retirement hurt less given it came in “an uncompetitive weekend.” But there’s no doubt he deserves better than what Aston Martin have been able to offer him this season. His expectations might be different at this stage of his career given his age, but considering this was a team that looked competitive at the start of 2023 the ensuing backwards slide is still incredibly sad to watch. If you had told anyone at the start of 2024 that Aston Martin would end the season fighting to hold off Haas for fifth in the Constructors’ Championship, you probably would’ve been heckled out the room. That it’s actually transpired is a testament to how brilliant Haas have been—and how bad Aston Martin have been.
Woe is the word of the day at Williams.
Franco Colapinto: 12th (Qualified 16th)
Alex Albon: DNF (Qualified 9th)
Albon’s positive qualifying was immediately wiped out at the very start on Sunday, as Yuki Tsunoda collided into him heading into Turn 1 and knocked him out of the race. Colapinto, meanwhile, offered yet another valiant drive as he tried to salvage the team’s weekend. But it was ultimately never going to be enough, as he would’ve still finished in 12th place even without the 10-second penalty he received post-race for causing a collision with Liam Lawson.
RB take after their sister team in Mexico.
Liam Lawson: 16th (Qualified 12th)
Yuki Tsunoda: DNF (Qualified 11th)
For RB, a weekend like this was also everything they didn’t need at this stage of the campaign. Although the switch to Lawson has still reaped benefits for their hopes in the Constructors’ Championship, they’ve still lost ground to Haas over the last two races and are trending in the wrong direction.
Much like their sister Red Bull team, RB’s race was dominated by chaos. Lawson’s battle with Perez didn’t exactly go down well with some of the top brass at Red Bull, but I do think he made the correct decision to fight Perez the way he did. He knows he’s in with a shot to take the Red Bull seat next season, and there’s no doubt that being aggressive, even if it’s against his sister car, will work in his favor in the long-term. What he’ll probably want to take back, though, is the middle finger he gave Perez as he passed him.
Although Lawson’s race suffered a further setback when his battle with Colapinto left him with damage, he still arguably emerged from the race as a “winner” despite finishing 16th. That’s because he still finished ahead of the two people he really needed to beat: Perez and Tsunoda. For Tsunoda, the first lap retirement meant Mexico was even worse for him than Austin. The fact he has yet to deliver points or been in real contention to do so when his teammate has will only increase the pressure on him if he wants to prove he can take over for Perez at Red Bull next year.
Yes, Sauber still exist.
Valterri Bottas: 14th (Qualified 15th)
Zhou Guanyu: 15th (Qualified 19th)
No, they still haven’t scored any points this season.
Miscellaneous Musings:
Sunday’s race in Brazil promises to be an exciting one. Interlagos is one of the great tracks of the calendar, both because of the exciting racing it offers and also because it’s spot at the end of the season means results here often have enormous consequences. Adding on to the drama is the fact the forecast is predicting rain, something which is sure to inject even more excitement and chaos.