Welcome to FC Hollywood
A preseason look at Bayern Munich's 2024-25 season
I want to start by getting two things out of the way with regards to the subject of today’s post.
First: I will be referring to the sport as “soccer” rather than “football” for purely pragmatic purposes. I do eventually want to publish NFL related content and therefore don’t want to deal with having to clarify which “football” it is I’m talking about every time. I could just write “American football,” but this isn’t an essay assignment where I have a word count I need to reach. Plus, I’m confident people reading this outside of America understand what “soccer” refers to anyway.
Second: while I made it a point not to explicitly name my favorite Formula One driver or my favorite Formula One team, I’m not going to obfuscate here. I am a Bayern Munich fan through and through. They’re one of my personal top two soccer clubs, but I’m sure you guessed that. If I wanted to devote time to things I absolutely despised on Omakase Formula I would’ve made sure the publication description read “masochistic musings” instead. After all, no one likes false advertising.
For anyone who is into soccer, Bayern need no introduction. For anyone who isn’t, Bayern are undoubtedly one of Europe’s great soccer empires. Their 6 Champions League titles and 11 total Champions League finals appearances are tied for third and second most in history. In Germany, their dominance is unmatched. Bayern have won 32 Bundesliga titles. The other 12 German clubs that have won the league at least once have 29 titles combined.
And yet you wouldn’t exactly get the impression that Bayern were a big club if you read a lot of the often dismissive English language coverage about them. Harry Kane regretting his move to Bayern because there isn’t enough sun in Munich? Definitely the case, because everyone knows London and England are famous for sunny weather. Even coverage that isn’t snide often reveals the author understands Bayern about as much as a German Shepherd born and raised in LA understands the concept of being a “German” Shepherd. Saying Sven Ulreich is a threat to Manuel Neuer’s status as Bayern’s goalkeeper is like saying you’d rather build your house out of straw instead of brick because brick is a poor insulator.
This disconnect between Bayern’s status as a giant of club soccer and how the club is covered (at least outside Germany—there’s a reason why in Germany the club is sometimes nicknamed “FC Hollywood”) is also part of why I decided to focus on Bayern specifically rather than expand to talking about the Bundesliga or European club soccer as a whole. For a club that is worth discussing, it’s about time Bayern were actually properly discussed for once.
And there’s no more exciting time to talk about Bayern and introduce new people to the club than right now. That’s because, for the first time since 2012, Bayern are not German champions. A chaotic 2023-24 season that saw poor squad planning exacerbate an injury crisis and various levels of passive-aggressive infighting between the coaching staff, executive board, and players (welcome to FC Hollywood) saw the club not only relinquish their grip on the league title but also go trophyless for the first time in 12 seasons. It may seem odd to describe this as an “exciting” time to talk about Bayern. You could argue “relieving” would be more accurate. After all, the win streak had to end at some point. But the thing about sport—and life in general too—is that defeat is as influential as victory. The empire strikes back, and Bayern is a soccer superpower both because they’ve won plenty and because they’ve struck back without fail when they’ve lost. Seeing that other side of Bayern as the chasers rather than the chased promises to be thrilling, especially when you realize there are literally people born in 2013 who have yet to see Bayern play that role until now.
It’s also exciting because Bayern’s latest attempt at regaining their perch at the top of German and European club soccer comes at a moment when there’s also been a surprising amount of pessimism surrounding their ability to quickly strike back this time around. Part of it is because there are objectively four or five Bundesliga teams who have a reasonable shot at the title this season, but much of it boils down to the conversation surrounding defending champions Bayer Leverkusen. While Bayern were busy committing seppuku last season, Leverkusen put together an absolutely incredible campaign that saw them not only become the first side to win the Bundesliga while going undefeated but also set a new European record for most consecutive competitive matches without a loss (51). Such a season deserves rightful praise, and the fact Leverkusen retained all their key players from last season as well as coach Xabi Alonso means they will be a force to be reckoned with again this time around. But for all the incredible soccer Leverkusen played last season, it’s worth also mentioning how incredibly lucky they were on the way to making history.
Across 53 matches in all competitions last season, Leverkusen scored 15 goals in stoppage time after the 90th minute. 11 of those either tied or won them the game. Across 34 Bundesliga games, Leverkusen scored 8 goals in stoppage time after the 90th minute. 6 of those either tied or won them the game (this doesn’t include Matchday 28, when a 45+8’ Wirtz penalty was the only goal that separated them and Union Berlin). How crazy is that? In comparison, there was only one goal scored after the 90th minute across Arsenal’s 38 Premier League games during their unbeaten “Invincibles” 2003-2004 title run. And it happened against them.
That’s not to say Leverkusen were undeserving champions—they were the best team in Germany last season and I believe they would’ve won the league even without going all Houdini. But the discussion I’ve seen in some corners entering this season’s Bundesliga about Leverkusen’s invincibility feel misguided because they’re largely based off a season where they were undefeated but far from invincible. They certainly won’t be easy to dethrone, but it’s still early to claim this team is head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Case in point: they opened this season’s Bundesliga yesterday with a 3-2 victory over last year’s 14th place team Borussia Mönchengladbach (say that five times fast) via another last gasp Wirtz goal in the eleventh minute of stoppage time.
Where does this leave Bayern? It would be a mistake to call them “underdogs” as some have done, and I’m not saying that simply because I’m a fan. This is a club that on paper is above the rest of the Bundesliga in every metric possible, and immediately labelling them underdogs simply because of one trophyless season would be like calling Serena Williams an underdog at a slam while she was active simply because she didn’t win the previous one. Bayern may finally be challengers after a long time, but they are still the standard to beat. It’s a pressure that comes with the privilege of being the largest and most successful club in German soccer history. Even if you think naming Bayern the favorites this season is far fetched, it would be equally far fetched to name them as anything other than a favorite. And if you don’t believe me you’ll hopefully believe Xabi Alonso, who said basically the same thing earlier this week.
On paper, the quality of Bayern’s squad is clear—but that was never in doubt. The addition of Michael Olise this summer adds another layer to an attack already filled with creativity and firepower. Nestory Irankunda has impressed so far, and while it’s unlikely the winger will make the starting lineup he could be a difference maker coming off the bench like fellow wunderkind Mathys Tel was last season. Hiroki Ito is a smart signing to add depth to the defense, and Josip Stanišić’s return from last season’s loan to Leverkusen (one of many examples of how Bayern were their own worst enemy) is a relief given Bayern have arguably struggled with depth and quality at right back since the legendary Philipp Lahm retired in 2017. The most important addition, however, has to be João Palhinha. Fun fact: Palhinha’s full name is João Maria Lobo Alves Palhares Costa Palhinha Gonçalves. I’m not joking.
Palhinha's arrival in Munich this summer after last season’s botched transfer means the team finally have the defensive midfielder they’ve been desperately needing since Javi Martínez departed the club in 2021. His expertise in both helping the build-up of attacks and snuffing out opposing counterattacks means he will be the key to Bayern’s offensive and defensive stability, and his ability to consistently transfer those skills from paper to pitch will be crucial in determining how the team performs as a whole. The defensive side of his skillset is especially important considering that’s where Bayern have struggled the last few seasons. Joshua Kimmich is not cut out to be a defensive midfielder no matter what he himself thinks, and the club’s decision to sell Mattijs de Ligt to Manchester United this summer caused an uproar because many Bayern fans viewed him as the team’s best defender. The reasons for the sale were obvious given coach Vincent Kompany’s tactics revolve around possession, high pressing, and a structured build-up. De Ligt’s lack of speed and ability on the ball relative to Dayot Upamecano and Kim Min-jae meant he was the odd man out. But a defender’s job first and foremost is to defend, and last season de Ligt was the best of the three at doing that and avoiding elementary errors when it mattered most. Both Upamecano and Kim are still world-class center backs, and a back line with both starting should still function perfectly fine as long as they’re healthy. However, last season’s defensive nightmares are still fresh in the minds of many, and Palhinha’s ball recovering abilities will offer the team a welcome extra layer of security.
The other key to Bayern’s season will be how Vincent Kompany performs under pressure in his first big coaching job. Beware: anyone who claims they had him taking over the Bayern job will probably also try selling you snake oil in the near future. Kompany’s appointment was, to put it mildly, a shock. Much of the skepticism surrounding him is due to the fact his Burnley side were relegated from the Premier League last season. It’s certainly not the greatest look for a coach, but the asterisk on Burnley’s relegation was that their squad was simply inferior to the rest of the league. That won’t be a problem at Bayern, and it’s certainly promising that his tactics are also a great fit on paper for the squad at his disposal. The real questions surrounding Kompany revolve around his man management skills and his ability to make tactical adjustments. He had it easy at Burnley on the man management front given he was arguably the biggest name in the entire organization, but that won’t be the case at FC Hollywood. Jupp Heynckes, who is revered amongst the Bayern faithful for coaching the club to its first treble (winning the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and Champions League in the same season), famously said that coaching Bayern is “the second hardest job in Germany after the Chancellor.” He’s not wrong. For fans of 30 Rock, coaching Bayern is like being Liz Lemon: you have to juggle managing big characters (think Tracy and Jenna) and answering to executives with equally outsized personalities (think Jack). In terms of making tactical adjustments, Kompany’s initial refusal to do that at Burnley when the team started to struggle will not fly at Bayern. Soccer isn’t politics, and standing by your principles when they aren’t working is just death by ego. Successfully adjusting either in-game and/or between games—especially in the important matches against teams like Leverkusen in the league or Real Madrid in the Champions League—will determine how far both Kompany and Bayern go this season.
So all things considered, what can we expect from Bayern this season? I hesitate to give a prediction because I know deep down I’m going to be rooting for them to win it all no matter what I say. But everyone loves a preseason prediction, so I’ll acquiesce: it wouldn’t be unreasonable if they reclaimed the Bundesliga and made at least the semifinals of both the DFB-Pokal and Champions League. A lot can happen as the season progresses, but those goals strike the right balance between sensibility and ambition.
I’ll still be rooting for them to win it all, though.