Tea Break Thoughts
A recap of the 2025 Miami Grand Prix and thoughts on the first quarter of the 2025 F1 season
The 2025 F1 season is a quarter of the way complete now, which is why I thought it’d be a good idea for my Miami Grand Prix recap to offer additional insight on the main takeaways and questions for each team across the first six races of the season. Since I also didn’t make a specific recap for the race in Saudi Arabia, I’ve included the results from that race here along with some discussion of what happened in that Grand Prix where applicable. The combination of both those factors means this post is longer than normal, and my tea break thoughts (if you know, you know) are coming later than I’d like, but I hope you’ll find what I have to say informative and/or entertaining!
With that, let’s dive straight in.
Either McLaren driver could end the season world champion. Yes, I said either.
Saudi Arabia GP result:
Oscar Piastri: 1st (Qualified 2nd)
Lando Norris: 4th (Qualified 10th)
Miami GP result:
Oscar Piastri: 1st (Qualified 4th)
Lando Norris: 2nd (Qualified 2nd)
How dominant have McLaren been so far this season? Their 246 points are the same as second-place Mercedes and third-place Red Bull combined. Such dominance is the result of having a great car and two great drivers who can extract said car’s performance. But you’d be forgiven for not thinking that based on how differently Norris and Piastri’s respective seasons have been covered.
Piastri’s strong run of form continued across both Saudi Arabia and Miami. He’s been the most consistent driver of the season so far, and you could even argue his championship lead should be even larger than it currently is given he was on pace for a podium finish in Australia before he spun off. But that’s not to say he hasn’t benefitted from some luck. Post-race commentary from Miami was misleading about Piastri’s ability to pass Verstappen compared to Norris: both McLaren drivers took the same number of laps to pass Verstappen, and Piastri benefitted from a Verstappen lock-up, a luxury Norris didn’t have.
In many ways, Miami was the perfect distillation of the issues surrounding how people have viewed Norris’ 2025 season. It’s not been a mistake-free season for him (see: the qualifying crash in Saudi Arabia). But the combination of McLaren having the best car and Piastri’s consistency means the line between driver error and bad luck has become unfairly blurred.
Take the two incidents Norris received criticism for after Miami. On the failed attempt to pass Verstappen at the start of the race, the argument some (including, confusingly, McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella) made was that he should have been patient and not gone for the maneuver at Turn 1 once Verstappen went wide into the turn. But such an assessment is based on nothing but hindsight—of course it’s easier to say he shouldn’t have attempted the overtake when we know what happened after! But staying “patient” wouldn’t have necessarily worked out better. Had Norris not gone for the gap, chances are Antonelli (who started the race third) or even Piastri would have. And even if no one else went for that gap, Norris being on the outside of Verstappen heading into Turn 1 meant Verstappen drifting wide would have also pushed Norris wide and cost him track position if he didn’t cut back on the inside like he did during the race. Was it unfortunate the overtake attempt didn’t work out? Absolutely. You can even make an argument that he ultimately lost track position and fell down to sixth because Verstappen had pushed him off track across the ensuing corners. But just because something doesn’t work out doesn't immediately make it the wrong idea, and it’s clear that in the case of the race start in Miami it was an issue of luck rather than skill.
As for the talk about all the time Norris lost battling Verstappen mid-race, the argument that it was all down to a lack of skill on Norris’ part revolves around the fact the gap between Norris and Piastri was 9 seconds by the time Norris passed Verstappen. That take conveniently ignores any and all context. Piastri had battled Verstappen for the race lead, meaning the race leader at the time (Verstappen) was focused on driving defensively rather than extending his lead, which prevented the gap between Piastri and the lead car from ballooning. Meanwhile, Norris had battled Verstappen for second, meaning he also had to contend with the variable of his teammate and race leader having a clear track ahead of him to build up a sizable gap. But rather than give Norris some credit for bringing the gap down to around 3.5 seconds by the closing stages of the race, the conversation seems to remain stuck on how much Norris “struggled” to pass Verstappen. But let me say it here again in case you missed it a few paragraphs ago: both McLarens took the same number of laps to pass Verstappen, and Piastri had the additional benefit of a Verstappen lock-up to get the overtake done. That’s not to say Norris couldn’t have been more efficient—he did have to initially give back track position to Verstappen on his first overtake because it took place off-track. But the fact it still took Norris the same number of laps to overtake Verstappen as his teammate when he could’ve actually done it faster is more of a testament to the pace he still has in a car he’s been open about struggling in than it is about his skill as a driver.
Had the positions of Norris and Piastri been reversed, I’m sure we would have seen a similar on-track outcome. But I’m not sure we would have seen a similar off-track conclusion about Piastri’s racecraft. Part of that might be due to expectations: Norris was the championship runner-up last year and is driving the best car. In addition, his teammate’s also been performing well in the same machinery. But I do think a larger part of the explanation behind the double-standards and sheer vitriol I’ve seen directed towards him lies in people (commentators and online commentariat alike) mistakenly associating his willingness to be open and vulnerable in his comments to the media with weakness. They believe—incorrectly—that because someone being frankly honest about their struggles goes against the stereotypical “championship mentality,” they can never be truly great at what they do, not to mention a champion. I’ve already covered this fallacy in detail in my Bahrain recap, so I won’t delve into the issue here and instead implore you to read what I said in that post. All I will say is this: the season is still young, and either McLaren driver could end the season world champion.
Yes, I said either. That may seem like an obvious conclusion given where McLaren stand versus the rest of the grid right now, but you wouldn’t know it from the maelstrom of misleading commentary surrounding Norris and his season so far.
Can Mercedes take the next step?
Saudi Arabia GP result:
George Russell: 5th (Qualified 3rd)
Kimi Antonelli: 6th (Qualified 5th)
Miami GP result:
George Russell: 3rd (Qualified 5th)
Kimi Antonelli: 6th (Qualified 3rd)
Mercedes will be genuinely pleased with their first quarter of 2025. Thanks to the consistency of Russell (who has finished on the podium in 4 out of the 6 races) and Antonelli (who became the youngest polesitter in any format in F1 history when he qualified first in the Miami sprint race), Mercedes find themselves second in the Constructors’ Championship. But look closely and you’ll find Mercedes are in a slightly more tenuous position than they appear to be on paper: they are only 36 points ahead of third-placed Red Bull, and the 104-point gap between them and fifth-placed Williams is basically as large as the gap between them and first-placed McLaren (105 points). So while they can currently stake claim to being the second-best team on the grid, their grasp on that title is far from secure.
The question moving forward, now, is whether they can take the next step forward. Even if the new wing flexibility restrictions that will be enforced starting in Spain in a few weeks does help level the playing field and bring McLaren back down to Earth (something that is far from a guarantee), Mercedes are so far behind that keeping Red Bull and Ferrari at bay is arguably a greater priority than catching McLaren. To do that, they’ll need to go on the offensive and win races. But despite their consistency, Mercedes have yet to prove themselves capable of winning. Meanwhile, Red Bull have won a race thanks to Max Verstappen’s latest heroics, and even Ferrari managed to win the sprint race in China despite all their struggles so far.
This illustrates two things. First, Mercedes have benefitted from Red Bull and Ferrari’s inconsistency and car struggles. That luck could very well run out at some point in the season, even if Mercedes continue to improve their own car. Second, and more importantly, George Russell has yet to fully step up in the way Verstappen has for Red Bull or Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton have for Ferrari. I’m calling out Russell specifically because he’s the lead driver for the team now. Yes, Antonelli’s having one of the best rookie seasons in recent memory, and he could win a race under the right circumstances given the car Mercedes have at the moment. But at the end of the day, the possible wins and big points are expected to come from Russell. That’s not to say four podiums is evidence he isn’t delivering—he’s done a solid job so far and deserves credit. Yet despite driving the second-best car on the grid, Russell finds himself fourth in the Drivers’ Championship and behind Verstappen, largely because he’s been hitting his benchmarks rather than exceeding them. And how much Russell will be able to deliver beyond what’s asked of him will ultimately be key in determining how far Mercedes will go the rest of the season.
Red Bull enter uncharted territory.
Saudi Arabia GP result:
Max Verstappen: 2nd (Qualified 1st)
Yuki Tsunoda: DNF (Qualified 8th)
Miami GP result:
Max Verstappen: 4th (Qualified 1st)
Yuki Tsunoda: 10th (Qualified 10th)
Miami 2024 marked the beginning of the end of Red Bull’s dominance. Yet their strong start in the opening races last season meant they were able to mask just how far they’d fallen. But saying Red Bull’s car couldn’t have been that bad just because Verstappen successfully defended his title is almost an insult to Verstappen’s skill. The RB20 was nearly impossible to drive well unless you were a generational champion—just ask Sergio Pérez.
This year’s RB21 is just as impossible to drive well if you aren’t a generational champion—just ask Liam Lawson. The difference for Red Bull, however, is that there is no points cushion to soften their fall this time around. Verstappen has done what he’s always done, as evidenced by the fact he’s started half of the races so far this season from pole. But Red Bull’s lack of race pace compared to McLaren means even he has hit a limit.
Nowhere was this clearer than the last two races. A poor start in Saudi Arabia forced Verstappen to cut the opening chicane, resulting in a five-second penalty that ultimately cost him the win. The logical thing to do there should have been to yield the position to Piastri and avoid the penalty. And while Verstappen and Red Bull argued (incorrectly) there shouldn’t have been a penalty at all, I can’t help but wonder if part of the calculus behind their decision not to give up the place was their belief that their best chance at victory lay in keeping McLaren in the dirty air behind them rather than chasing them down. If that did play a part in their decision, it would be a damning indictment of their own belief—or lack thereof—in their car’s ability to compete with McLaren. And remember: the gamble still failed.
The same issue got exposed again in Miami during Verstappen’s failed battle with Norris. Had Red Bull’s car been more competitive, the drawn-out fight would’ve been justified. Instead, it not only prolonged the inevitable, but also led to Verstappen being undercut by Russell and finishing the race off the podium. I’m not saying Verstappen should have let Norris by with no resistance, but the futile resistance showed Red Bull are now in uncharted territory. For the last few years, they’ve provided superior machinery that, combined with Verstappen’s skill, allowed them to seemingly bend results to their will. That is no longer the case.
As for Tsunoda, he’s brought stability to the most volatile carousel seat on the grid. But he’s still only scored 6(!) Of Red Bull’s 105 points so far this season, which is too low even when you account for the fact he was in the sister Racing Bulls car in Australia and China. More importantly for Tsunoda, his results so far for Red Bull aren’t enough to guarantee his spot beyond this season. He’s only scored one more point during his time at Red Bull so far than rookie Isack Hadjar has for Racing Bulls. If he’s unable to perform significantly better than Hadjar the rest of the season, we could very well see Red Bull make another swap for 2026.
Perhaps a tea break might actually do Ferrari some good.
Saudi Arabia GP result:
Charles Leclerc: 3rd (Qualified 4th)
Lewis Hamilton: 7th (Qualified 7th)
Miami GP result:
Charles Leclerc: 7th (Qualified 8th)
Lewis Hamilton: 8th (Qualified 12th)
While the Italian media have criticized Hamilton for his slow start, Leclerc failing to do much better shows how Ferrari’s problems so far this season lie with their car rather than their drivers. If anything, Leclerc’s podium in Saudi Arabia and Hamilton’s victory in China and podium finish in the Miami sprint show that both Ferrari drivers are doing their best to wring potential out of a subpar car.
If you watched the main race in Miami, you would have witnessed what was seemingly unfathomable at the end of 2024: a Haas confidently battling a Ferrari, and the Ferrari pitwall being worried about a Williams. That Ferrari have to pay serious attention to the midfield teams now shows just how far behind they are compared to Red Bull and Mercedes. And given the on-track results, I can’t even seriously talk about Ferrari and McLaren in the same sentence.
To make matters worse for Ferrari, Miami also saw the team struggle to manage their two drivers. Hamilton’s “have a tea break” comment came after Ferrari initially refused to swap positions despite him being on the medium tires (Leclerc was on hard tires) and putting together faster splits at that point of the race. But swapping positions only made Leclerc unhappy. In the end, Ferrari found themselves re-swapping positions at the end of the race after Hamilton failed to catch Antonelli in time. How Ferrari deal with two drivers who are capable of being a team’s number one driver will surely play a role in their ability to bounce back the rest of the season.
But driver management can come later. Right now, Ferrari desperately need to focus on improving their car. After being notified of the re-swap in Miami and Carlos Sainz’s Williams being 1.4 seconds behind, Hamilton quipped: “You want me to let him [Sainz] past as well?” Spoiler alert for this weekend’s race in Imola: that’s exactly what happened during qualifying.
Williams set the standard in more ways than one.
Saudi Arabia GP result:
Carlos Sainz: 8th (Qualified 6th)
Alex Albon: 9th (Qualified 11th)
Miami GP result:
Alex Albon: 5th (Qualified 7th)
Carlos Sainz: 9th (Qualified 6th)
Williams have been the standard bearers for the midfield so far this season, but Miami showed they were also standard bearers for the entire grid when it comes to clearing up miscommunication and team errors. Sainz was peeved after Albon had overtaken him despite team orders indicating both cars would be holding positions. It turns out the team had immediately reversed the initial decision and allowed the teammates to race each other, but weren’t able to communicate the revised order to Sainz before Albon proceeded to overtake. The issue was quickly addressed post-race, with Williams Team Principal James Vowles accepting the team was at fault for the miscommunication and revealing the team revised their team radio process in order to make future messages concise. Other teams would do well to follow Williams’ lead.
Moving forward, it will be interesting to see how much Sainz continues to grow at Williams. Despite all the hype surrounding his move to Williams and the expectations surrounding him as an ex-Ferrari driver, Sainz’s struggles so far have allowed Albon to be the team’s de facto lead driver. Given Sainz’s recent impressive performances in qualifying, it feels like a matter of time before Sainz will be able to produce a solid race result. But with Albon currently outscoring Sainz by 30 points to 7, it’s clear he won’t step aside and let the team prioritize Sainz. Will Williams handle this developing situation as effectively as they did their miscommunication in Miami? Or will they struggle like Ferrari did in Miami?
Haas’ key the rest of the season lies in their qualifying performance.
Saudi Arabia GP result:
Ollie Bearman: 13th (Qualified 15th)
Esteban Ocon: 14th (Qualified 19th)
Miami GP result:
Esteban Ocon: 12th (Qualified 9th)
Ollie Bearman: DNF (Qualified 19th)
After three solid race weeks, Haas fell back down to Earth in Saudi Arabia and Miami. That’s not to say the results the last two races were completely representative or deserved. In Miami, the team were doubly unlucky, with Bearman retiring after a power unit failure and the team getting Ocon’s pit stop timing wrong. Moving forward, I still expect Haas to have an outside shot at finishing in the points more often than not. However, how consistently they will be able to be competitive rests on how much they can improve their qualifying performance. It’s not that it’s impossible for a Haas to score points after qualifying last—just look at Bearman’s performance in Bahrain. But it would be beyond foolish to look at such a performance and expect it to be the norm.
Aston Martin find themselves the best of the worst.
Saudi Arabia GP result:
Fernando Alonso: 11th (Qualified 13th)
Lance Stroll: 16th (Qualified 16th)
Miami GP result:
Fernando Alonso: 15th (Qualified 17th)
Lance Stroll: 16th (Qualified 18th)
You could argue Stroll’s 5th place in the Miami sprint means Aston Martin’s results in the last two main races aren’t a completely accurate reflection of the team’s performance. But entertaining that argument doesn’t nullify the fact things still don’t look great for them. If anything, the team’s ability to be stably subpar so far this season is the reason why they’re currently the best of the worst. They might be bad, but at least they’re not also chaotic.
Despair and hope coexist at Racing Bulls.
Saudi Arabia GP result:
Isack Hadjar: 10th (Qualified 14th)
Liam Lawson: 12th (Qualified 12th)
Miami GP result:
Isack Hadjar: 11th (Qualified 11th)
Liam Lawson: DNF (Qualified 15th)
It would be unfair to blame Racing Bulls for the chaos that engulfed the team early on in the season— their sister Red Bull team are solely to blame for the Tsunoda-Lawson fiasco. But despite the abominable manner in which Lawson was demoted, his return to Racing Bulls has seen him score more penalty points on his FIA Super License (3) than actual race points (0).
But while despair may be the story of Lawson’s season so far, Hadjar has shown himself to be a beacon of hope for both Racing Bulls and Red Bull. While intra-team battles are normally the focus for teams lower on the grid, Hadjar has actually made the main battle to watch at Racing Bulls an inter-team battle: a pair of solid performances in Saudi Arabia and Miami means he’s quickly establishing himself as a legitimate candidate for the second Red Bull seat.
The Word of the Day at Alpine is: YIKES.
Saudi Arabia GP result:
Jack Doohan: 17th (Qualified 17th)
Pierre Gasly: DNF (Qualified 9th)
Miami GP result:
Pierre Gasly: 13th (Pit Lane start)
Jack Doohan: DNF (Qualified 14th)
Alpine’s results this season have been poor, and the team have turned to the solution everyone saw coming: swapping Doohan out for Franco Colapinto. The move itself shouldn’t raise eyebrows—read Part I of my RACES post to see what I had to say about Colapinto after 2024. But the terms of the move are quite surprising. Rather than have Colapinto race for the rest of the season, Alpine have put him in on an initial five-race contract. I’m not sure why the team wouldn’t trust Colapinto after what he showed at Williams last year, but the weird situation still doesn’t help Doohan—his lack of results and multitude of mistakes means I wouldn’t be shocked if Alpine opt for reserve driver Paul Aron over a return to Doohan if the Colapinto experiment fails.
But the confusing intricacies of Alpine’s driver swap is nothing compared to the shake-up at the top of the team. Oliver Oakes’ sudden resignation as Team Principal was immediately linked to the news that his brother—a director at the junior series Hitech Grand Prix team—had been arrested (Oliver Oakes himself is not accused of any wrongdoing in his brother’s case). But Oakes’ departure cleared the way for Flavio Briatore to be named Alpine’s de facto leader. And if you’re new to F1 and want a quick introduction on Briatore and what his appointment means, all I have for you is one word: YIKES. Why do I say that? Stay tuned for a future Omakase Formula post about “Crashgate.”
No, Sauber didn’t score points these past two races.
Saudi Arabia GP result:
Nico Hülkenberg: 15th (Qualified 18th)
Gabriel Bortoleto: 18th (Qualified 20th)
Miami GP result:
Nico Hülkenberg: 14th (Qualified 16th)
Gabriel Bortoleto: DNF (Qualified 13th)
But at least they’ll always have the 6 points from Australia! Also, they’re not a complete omnishambles off-track like Alpine, and that genuinely does count for something.