From One F-Sport to the Next

A quick recap of the NFL regular season and playoff predictions with the most knowledgeable sports fans you'll ever meet

Jan 11, 2025

I may be on break from covering Formula One for Omakase Formula (if you haven’t yet, check out Part I of my 2024 season recap, where I model the performance of every driver, and Part II, where I give out awards to highlight moments throughout the season). But Formula One is far from the only sport I follow. So for now, we’re moving from one F-sport to the next.

As the NFL playoffs are set to begin later today, it’s the perfect time to check-in with my favorite sports fanatics: the guys in my fantasy football league. Before you dismiss any of us, I’m absolutely confident our group could steamroll our way through any sports trivia night. And while we’re not “pundits” per se, I’m more than happy to announce we called quite a few things this season that weren’t being discussed at all in other places. You can check out our full preseason comments and predictions here.

Before we begin, I just want to say a huge thank you again to the guys for helping me out with this and for always keeping me entertained and informed.

Something we called that other people (pundits and/or fellow league members) didn’t:

Here are some things we called before the first game kicked off, either via our season predictions or comments on teams to look out for/write off:

Pavit (our league champion this year!): Fantasy-wise, J.K. Dobbins was a steal for me in the last round of the draft, and I don’t recall his name being mentioned at all by the fantasy media.

Zarek: Pundits and league-mates alike all thought the Buffalo Bills would regress some. But I knew the Bills would be fine, and Omakase Formula has the receipts for that!

Neil: I was always high on the Bills this year, even after they shook up the team quite a bit. I’m really happy that I picked them to win the division. Even more crazy that they were the only ones who beat the Mahomes in the regular season.

Gino: I’d hardly call it gloating to point this one out, it seemed pretty obvious to me at the beginning of the season that the Bills were gonna do well and cruise to take the AFC East. I think I recall a weird amount of doubt on that front, but maybe i’m just making up strawmen. Either way, good on them, even if they are a division rival they earned it, and at least it’s not the Jets.

Pranay: I called the Los Angeles Rams winning their division. I’ll never underestimate Sean McVay.

Brian: Not a crazy/outlandish prediction, but direct quote on the Pittsburgh Steelers from my answer for “what teams should write themselves off”:

“It just feels like they’re so hapless on offense—I guess they’ll probably claw their way to 9 wins thanks to Tomlin and the Watt-led defense.” (I said Pittsburgh had basically a 0% chance of winning a playoff game.)

They did get one more win than I expected, but that offense still seems mostly hapless (outside of low probability moon balls). And they’re now riding a 4-game losing streak going into the playoffs, with pretty much no one giving them much of a chance at Baltimore. Maybe they’ll ultimately prove me wrong this wild card weekend, but this feels like just yet another one-and-done Pittsburgh season.

Austin: There are “I told you” moments. And then there are “I f***ing told you” moments.

I may not have read every single preseason prediction out there, but I can almost certainly say I was the only person—besides diehard fans or people affiliated with the team—that said the Denver Broncos would be competitive and could sneak into the playoffs. It looked unlikely on paper: PFF ranked their roster second-to-last before the season, and Vegas had their win over/under at 5.5. But I warned it would be foolish to judge—if not completely write off—Sean Payton’s tenure in Denver based on his first season with the franchise. Like I said preseason, Russell Wilson not being a good scheme fit was a key part of why the Broncos looked anemic last year. For that reason, the decision to part with Wilson and draft Bo Nix gets the media attention. But equally notable was Payton’s decision to stick by his hand-picked coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, whom Payton brought back to Denver, could have easily been fired after last season, and no one would have batted an eye. Instead, he stayed on and turned the Broncos’ defense into one of the best in the league this year.

Don’t get me wrong, this team is still a work in progress. But it was clear (at least to me) that people were underestimating the Broncos. It doesn’t surprise me that pundits were surprised by Denver’s success—none of them predicted they would do well. It would, however, surprise me if Omakase Formula subscribers or members of our fantasy league were surprised. Because—again—I F***ING TOLD YOU.

Biggest Surprise:

Sujay: The Minnesota Vikings! I did not expect them to do much this season.

Pavit: I did not expect the Vikings to improve with a switch to Sam Darnold at QB. I still think they exit the playoffs by the divisional round, though.

Gino: SAM FREAKING DARNOLD. Where the hell did that come from??? As one YouTube commenter put it, imagine if you told yourself in 2021 that Jared Goff and Sam Darnold would be leading NFC North teams against each other in week 18 to decide the #1 seed, it’s just bonkers.

Neil: Ditto the Vikings and Sam Darnold . I can’t believe he was able to rescue this team after McCarthy’s injury and turn it into a 14-win team.

Brian: Hard to answer anyone besides Sam Darnold, his flop in the Week 18 finale notwithstanding. Darnold leading Minnesota to 14 wins would’ve been an unthinkable prediction before the season. Honorable to mention to Sean Payton, Bo Nix, and Denver’s Anonymous Crush defense for earning a playoff berth despite the lingering cloud of Russell Wilson’s huge dead cap hit.

Austin: Darnold was definitely the major surprise of the year when it comes to players, but I do want to mention Bryce Young. Or, more specifically, the Bryce Young that appeared starting Week 8. No one was surprised he got benched after Week 2, but when he was reinstated I think we all expected the same player that went 2-16 pre-benching. Instead, Young led the Panthers to a 4-6 finish that saw them give multiple playoff teams (Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Eagles) a headache and knock multiple teams (Cardinals, Falcons) out of playoff contention. Will this new Bryce Young (or was this the real Bryce Young all along??) show up in 2025? He’ll be the Panthers’ starting QB, so we’ll get to find out. But the fact we could even ask this question now after how things looked a few months ago speaks to what a wild plot twist his midseason turnaround was.

Alex: Bills. Thought they’d take a step back due to offseason losses, injuries, coordinator changes, and the existence of HC Sean McDermott. To my pleasant surprise, Josh Allen is playing the best football of his career, and the team has been dominant all season long!

Zarek: I’ll give two, for very different reasons: I don’t think anyone saw the Steelers coming, and although they may have regressed to end the season, I definitely did not think Russell Wilson and the team would be as good as they ended up being. Also Jayden Daniels, what a special player! Hard to believe the Washington Commanders are relevant again.

Actually, I’ll give a third…who in the world would have thought the Chiefs would be as good as they were WHILE Mahomes has been as—well—not good as he has been.

Biggest Flop or Embarrassment:

Zarek: I’ll toss out multiple here too: A bit of a disappointing season for Caleb (“The Next Patrick Mahomes”) Williams. And I was a big T-Law (Trevor Lawrence) guy coming into the season. But phew, what a rough season. I’m not selling all my stock on him quite yet though.

But easily the biggest disappointment, quite frankly a pathetic season from the QB and the team: I can’t believe the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets are flat out worse than the Zach Wilson-led Jets. They deserve all the slander in the world—and then some.

Pranay: The Indianapolis Colts. Losing to the Giants with playoffs on the line is a war crime. Nobody ended up happy from that game.

Austin: Some teams were more ridiculous (I agree with Zarek’s assessment of the Jets and Pranay’s assessment of the Colts). Other teams were more surprising vs. preseason expectations (I’ll let some of the other guys talk about the Niners). But I would argue no team was quite as titanically embarrassing as the Cincinnati Bengals. This team should have made playoffs. That they didn’t is ultimately yet another testament to the franchise’s almost unparalleled record of seppuku.

Given the season some Bengals players had, I get that “heartbreaking” might be the go-to descriptor here. And don’t get me wrong, I do feel bad for some of their players. But think about it: they had the passing yards leader (Joe Burrow, 4,918 yards), receiving yards leader (Ja’Marr Chase, 1,708 yards), and sacks leader (Trey Hendrickson, 17.5)—and still finished with the same record as they did in 2023, when they had backup quarterback Jake Browning start the last seven games of the season (9-8). You could argue they had more than a few heartbreakers go against them. But they also had no business losing to the Patriots (4-13 this season) Week 1. The defense, already poor in 2023, allowed the team to break the NFL record for most losses in a season (4) after scoring 33+ points, the ~~high~~lowlight of which was giving up 44 points against a Steelers team that only scored more than 28 points two other times the rest of the season. The offensive line, a problem throughout Burrow’s entire career, continued to be—well—offensive. As a result, Burrow and Co.’s statistically phenomenal season became nothing more than the latest chapter in Cincinnati’s multi-act tragedy of wasting away quarterbacks (highly recommend this piece by Neil Paine for a deep dive into that saga).

The Bengals may have finally course-corrected, firing their defensive coordinator and offensive line coach (among other coaching shakeups) earlier this week. But it came too late—their season had already hit the iceberg and sank.

Alex: San Francisco 49ers. Coaching blunders, soft defense, and subpar QB play. Devastating Super Bowl hangover.

Gino: I live in the Bay Area and have lots of friends who are Niners fans (including some in this group), so it gives me no pleasure to report that the 49ers were embarrassing this season. So much talent, such high expectations, and they finish dead last in the division by a two-game margin. This is a 6-win team??? How the hell is this a 6-win team???

Neil: The most absolute flop was the 49ers, honestly. A completely poor season between player performance, injuries, coaching decisions, and luck. Deebo and Aiyuk were really surprising this year. Special teams were also atrocious. Thank goodness Shanahan is making a lot of changes in the coaching staff.

Sujay: 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. He threatened to leave unless he got paid more, underperformed after getting paid more, and got a season-ending injury relatively early.

Pavit: Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts—I avoided him for the first 3 years of his career and thought he’d break out with Kirk Cousins. He got my hopes up after a couple of solid performances, but ended the season on the waiver wire.

Brian: I was really, really high on the Houston Texans going into this year—I thought Stroud was already perhaps a top 5 quarterback after his rookie year, and I felt like it was time for a new challenger to the Chiefs to arise in the AFC. They still managed to win their cakewalk division, but with Stroud’s sophomore slump it doesn’t feel like they’re any closer to being a serious threat just yet.

Game of the Season:

There were plenty of intense, high-quality games this season, and it’s no surprise that it was difficult for most people to pick just one game. The Bengals, in their desperate bid for the playoffs, feature heavily: the Bengals vs. Ravens matchups (Weeks 5 and 10) received votes from Alex, Brian (who also mentioned their matchups vs. the Chargers and the Chiefs), Neil, Pavit, and Pranay. Other high-scoring matchups between dynamic offenses also featured, with the Bills vs. Rams in Week 14 and Bills vs. Lions in Week 15 getting mentions from Brian, Sujay, and myself.

But while it certainly helps, no one ever said high-quality football was a mandatory ingredient for a great football game. Gino highlights the Week 13 Cleveland Browns vs. Broncos game: “not exactly S-tier football—so many swings and huge passes and turnovers. Just a great time with zero stakes—and thus, zero stress—at least for me.”

Speaking of the Browns, the Week 12 Browns vs. Steelers match in blizzard conditions also received multiple nominations. Here are Zarek’s thoughts on why that game was so special:

“The Blizzard game where Jameis Winston led the Browns past the Steelers while they were massive underdogs and Pittsburgh was coming off a a huge win streak was spectacular, especially on a TNF primetime game. I can’t recall the last time I saw so much snow on a field, and Jameis was doing peak Jameis things. Nick Chubb had two TDs, including the game winner in his first game against the Steelers since he suffered that devastating leg injury last year. And the constant cutoffs by the TV crew to all the drunk Cleveland fans who were going shirtless while enduring that snowstorm? It was one of those games that you just had to witness live. Cue the Martin Scorsese “Absolute Cinema” meme, because that perfectly describes this game.”

Playoff Predictions:

Before we get into our playoff predictions, a huge shout-out and and thank you to Brian—it’s because of him that these brackets look as presentable as they are:

Brian: